Golden State comes in as a solid favorite in this 7 vs 8 Western Conference Play-In matchup. Memphis has the tools to challenge, but the focus here is on the total, and there’s a lot to like.
Game Overview
These two clubs have been dancing all year, splitting the season series 2-2. The Grizzlies dropped a 134-125 shootout at home earlier this month, which marked the third Over in four meetings this season.
Memphis has been solid on the road (22-19 SU) and has posted a strong 45-35-2 O/U record. Their last five games have averaged a combined 239.6 points.
Golden State is consistent both home and away (24-17 in each), and has gone a dead-even 41-41 on totals this season—but their recent form leans high-scoring, and Steph Curry is on fire.
Key Matchups and Analysis
Offensive Firepower & Fast Pace
Memphis ranks 4th in points per game (121.7) and top 3 in FGA and FGM. They push the pace and convert efficiently. They’re also 3rd in offensive rebounding, which fuels second-chance points—an Over bettor’s best friend.
Golden State isn’t far behind, ranking 8th in FG% and averaging 110.5 points allowed per game—right around league average. But Curry’s scoring (36 in his last game) and the team's 121-point outing vs Memphis in January show they can light it up.
Defensive Soft Spots & Injuries
Memphis is missing two rotation players—J. Wells (wrist) and B. Clarke (knee)—which hurts depth, especially defensively. Golden State has no injuries but is vulnerable in transition and the defensive glass (19th in defensive rebounding).
Trends That Point to the Over
- 3 of the last 4 meetings have gone Over
- Memphis is 45-35-2 to the Over on the year
- Both teams are top 6 in points per quarter across all four quarters
Expect a fast-paced affair where both clubs get theirs. Memphis has had no trouble scoring on Golden State’s defense, and the Warriors are peaking offensively at the right time.
