This series has been a back-and-forth battle, and with Game 6 on deck, expect intensity at playoff max.
Game Overview
The Nuggets hold a 3-2 series edge after a convincing 131-115 home win on April 29. They’ve won three of the last four in the series and are 5-2 SU in their last 7 against LA. Despite that, oddsmakers have the Clippers as significant favorites at home, where they’ve been dominant—31-12 SU and 29-14 ATS on the season.
Denver enters hot, 6-2 SU in their last eight, and they’re scoring at a league-best 119.9 PPG. However, defense has been an issue, allowing 116.4 PPG (#22 in the NBA). LA’s more balanced, ranking top 5 in team defense and sporting a +4.59 point differential. Their recent form (7-3 last 10) is strong, but the cracks showed last game.
Trends are leaning Under—both teams have seen 4 of their last 5 go that way. The Under is also 11-2 in their last 13 meetings in LA.
Key Matchups and Analysis
Rebounding & Efficiency:
Denver owns the glass with 45.6 RPG (#4), including 34.4 DREB (#1). That’s huge against a Clippers team with just 10.3 OREB per game. The Nuggets also shoot an elite 50.4% from the field (#1), but volume is limited—they rank dead last in 3PA (31.8 per game).
Assists & Ball Movement:
Denver’s 30.6 APG is league-best, and their 2.26 AST/TO ratio leads the NBA. This fluid ball movement has troubled the Clippers, especially when Jokic initiates the offense. But LA counters with top-tier defense—3rd in steals, 4th in PPG allowed (108.1), and elite home metrics.
Situational Angles:
– Denver is just 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 at Intuit Dome.
– Clippers are 14-2 SU in their last 16 at home.
– This is a Game 6 elimination game for LA, and they’re 4-1 ATS at home vs. Denver recently.
Injuries haven’t been disclosed as significant for this game, meaning both squads should be at full strength.
