Bash sees two lottery-bound teams playing out the string, but the projection finds a significant gap between the posted total and what the pace and efficiency numbers support in this late-March matchup.
Chicago Bulls at Memphis Grizzlies: The Line and the Edge
Memphis is getting four points at home Saturday night against a Bulls team playing on back-to-back nights, and the market is pricing in roster uncertainty and effort level questions across the board. Chicago sits at 29-44, Memphis at 24-49, and both clubs have shut down key rotation pieces for the season. The Bulls just got rolled in Oklahoma City 131-113 on Friday, while Memphis dropped their fifth straight at home to Houston 119-109. The projection has this game landing around 2.3 points in Memphis's favor, which puts the Grizzlies +4.0 in interesting territory with a 6.3-point edge to the spread.
But the total at 245.5 is where the real value sits. The projection has this game at 234.8 points, creating a 10.7-point edge to the under. That gap is built on pace and efficiency metrics that don't support the market's scoring expectation. The projected pace blend is 102.1 possessions—Chicago runs at 102.8, Memphis at 101.4—and neither offense grades out above the low-to-mid 110s in offensive rating. Both teams shoot below-average percentages from the field, and the injury reports are loaded with questionable tags on both sides. Memphis is without Ja Morant, Zach Edey, and their entire core rotation, while Chicago has lost Zach Collins, Jaden Ivey, and Jalen Smith for the season. This is a classic late-March spot where the betting market has inflated the total based on two teams that can occasionally score, but the underlying numbers tell a different story.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Saturday, March 28, 2026 | 8:00 ET
- Venue: FedExForum
- Spread: Memphis Grizzlies +4.0 (-110) | Chicago Bulls -4.0 (-110)
- Total: Over 245.5 (-110) | Under 245.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Memphis Grizzlies +142 | Chicago Bulls -175
The Matchup: What Decides This Game
The mismatch numbers are nearly identical on both sides—Chicago's offense versus Memphis's defense grades out at -4.7 points per 100 possessions, while Memphis's offense versus Chicago's defense sits at -4.3. Those are both medium-sized negative mismatches, which tells you neither team has a clear advantage when they have the ball. The shooting quality gap favors Chicago slightly with a 1.6 percentage point edge in effective field goal percentage, but that's a small difference that could evaporate based on who's available and how much energy each team brings after Chicago's back-to-back spot.
Memphis does have a small offensive rebounding edge at 25.3% compared to Chicago's 23.0%, and in a game where neither team shoots particularly well, getting extra possessions off the glass could matter. But the pace environment is the key here. At 102.1 projected possessions, this isn't a high-possession game, and when you combine that with two offenses grading out in the low-to-mid 110s in offensive rating, you're looking at a total that should land well below the posted number. The clutch numbers favor Chicago significantly—they're 52.6% in close games compared to Memphis's 35.1%—but that only matters if this game stays tight into the final five minutes.
Bash's Best Bet
I'm staying away from the side because there are too many variables around effort level and roster availability when you're betting on two lottery teams in late March. The projection likes Memphis +4.0, and I see the case for it with Chicago on a back-to-back, but I don't have strong conviction either way.
The total is where I see clearer value. The projection has this game at 234.8 points, which is more than 10 points below the posted number of 245.5. That edge is built on pace and efficiency metrics that don't support a high-scoring game. Both teams play in the low-100s in pace, both offenses grade out in the low-to-mid 110s in offensive rating, and neither defense can get stops consistently. That sounds like a recipe for scoring, but the math doesn't support it when you're only getting 102 possessions and both teams are shooting below-average percentages from the field. The risk is that this turns into a track meet if both teams decide to just run and gun with nothing to play for, but the season-long trends suggest otherwise. The math says this game lands in the low-to-mid 230s, and that's enough edge for me to take a shot.
BASH'S BEST BET: Under 245.5 (-110)