Bash sees a Bulls team limping into LA with half a roster missing, facing a Clippers squad that just hung 153 on Minnesota—and he's targeting the total in a pace mismatch that favors the under.
Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Clippers: The Line and the Edge
The Clippers are laying 12.5 points at home against a Bulls team running on fumes. Chicago just survived Golden State in overtime behind Matas Buzelis' 41-point career night, but now they're flying cross-country on short rest to face a rested LA squad that dropped 153 on Minnesota with Kawhi Leonard going for 45. The spread reflects the talent gap, but the real value sits on the total at 235.0. Chicago is down six bodies—including Anfernee Simons, Collin Sexton, Patrick Williams, and Isaac Okoro—gutting their backcourt depth and ball-handling. The Clippers play at 97.0 possessions per game, one of the slowest tempos in the league, and the projection shows 99.7 possessions here. That's deliberate basketball, not the kind of game that gets to 235. The model projects 230.0, giving the under five points of cushion against a market number that assumes Chicago can push pace without their full rotation.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- When: March 13, 2026, 10:30 ET
- Where: Intuit Dome
- Spread: Clippers -12.5 (-115) | Bulls +12.5 (-105)
- Total: 235.0 (Over -110 / Under -110)
- Moneyline: Clippers -750 | Bulls +500
The Matchup: What Decides This Game
This comes down to depth and pace control. Chicago is running a seven-man rotation on the second night of a back-to-back road trip after playing overtime in San Francisco. Without Sexton and Simons—who combine for 28.9 points per game—the Bulls are leaning entirely on Josh Giddey and Tre Jones to create offense against a Clippers defense that can switch and pressure the ball. The pace matchup heavily favors LA. The Clippers grind at 97.0 possessions per game and are content to execute in the halfcourt with Kawhi working in isolation. Chicago pushes harder at 102.5, but they don't have the bodies to sustain that tempo. The efficiency gap sits at +5.3 net rating in favor of the Clippers, and the true shooting advantage is +2.1 percentage points. Defensively, Chicago has no answer for Kawhi, who just torched Minnesota for 45 on 15-of-20 shooting. The Bulls are missing the wing defenders who could slow him down, and the Clippers have enough shooting with Darius Garland and Bennedict Mathurin to punish help defense.
Bash's Best Bet
I'm passing on the spread and targeting the total. The projection sits at 230.0, and that's generous given Chicago's depleted roster and the pace dynamics. The Clippers don't need to push tempo—they'll take their time, let Kawhi work, and execute in the halfcourt. Chicago just played overtime and is flying cross-country without four rotation players who handle the ball. That means more possessions ending in contested looks and fewer transition opportunities. The risk is garbage time if the Clippers blow this open early, but I'm betting on a controlled game where Chicago struggles to score and LA doesn't need to run. The under has value at 235.
BASH'S BEST BET: Under 235.0 for 1 unit.