Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks Betting Pick & Prediction
NBA Regular Season | March 4, 2025
📅 Date/Time: Tuesday, March 4, 7:30 PM ET
📍 Where: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
📺 TV: TBD
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Milwaukee -6.5 (-110) | Atlanta +6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Milwaukee -275 | Atlanta +220
Over/Under: 240.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Game Overview
The Milwaukee Bucks are in red-hot form, winning six of their last seven with their only loss coming in a tight game at Houston. Giannis Antetokounmpo, fresh off a 29-point, 9-rebound performance, is listed as probable despite dealing with a minor calf issue. However, forward Kyle Kuzma is doubtful with an ankle injury, and Pat Connaughton remains out.
Atlanta, meanwhile, has won two of three meetings with Milwaukee this season, including a 115-110 home win on Feb. 7. The Hawks pulled off a gritty fourth-quarter comeback against Memphis last night, but the back-to-back scheduling puts them at a disadvantage against a rested Bucks squad.
Key Matchups & Betting Trends
Milwaukee’s Offense vs. Atlanta’s Defense
Bucks shoot 47.8% FG (7th) vs. Hawks allowing 48.2% FG (29th) – Milwaukee should have a major efficiency edge.
Milwaukee is the NBA’s 2nd-best three-point shooting team (38.4%) vs. Atlanta’s 28th-ranked perimeter defense (37.3% 3PT allowed).
Milwaukee scores 114.1 PPG (12th), while Atlanta gives up 119.6 PPG (28th).
This looks like a tough matchup for the Hawks, who struggle defensively, especially on the perimeter. If Damian Lillard and Milwaukee’s shooters get going, Atlanta could be in trouble.
Atlanta’s Offense vs. Milwaukee’s Defense
Trae Young struggled last game (5-for-17 shooting) but still dished out 15 assists. If he bounces back offensively, Atlanta can keep this close.
Zaccharie Risacher exploded for 27 points on 11-for-13 shooting vs. Memphis. His production will be crucial against Milwaukee’s strong interior defense.
Hawks force turnovers (9.3 steals per game, 2nd in NBA), but Milwaukee is solid at protecting the ball (13.7 TO per game, 8th fewest).
Scheduling & Trends Edge
Milwaukee is rested and has covered 6 of its last 8 road games.
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS as a home underdog but on a back-to-back.
The Under has hit in 4 of the last 5 Bucks-Hawks meetings.
Injury Impact
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable – Calf) → If healthy, he’ll be a nightmare matchup for Atlanta’s weak defense.
Kyle Kuzma (Doubtful – Ankle) → Leaves a scoring gap at forward.
Pat Connaughton (Out – Calf) → Bench depth takes a hit.
Hawks Missing Depth → Georges Niang, Larry Nance Jr., Jalen Johnson, and Kobe Bufkin are all out, limiting Atlanta’s rotation options.
Betting Pick & Prediction
Atlanta has covered twice vs. Milwaukee this season and is a strong home underdog, but the back-to-back hurts their chances here. The Bucks have been dominant lately, and a rested Giannis should overpower a Hawks defense that ranks 28th in points allowed and 29th in field goal defense.
While Milwaukee’s road ATS record is shaky, Atlanta’s defensive struggles and fatigue should give the Bucks an edge.
The total at 240.5 is high, but the Under has been the stronger trend in this matchup. With Milwaukee’s defensive presence inside and Atlanta potentially tired, the Under is the best play here.
Best Bets:
✅ Milwaukee -6.5
✅ Under 240.5
Final Score Prediction:
Milwaukee 122, Atlanta 112 (Bucks Cover, Under Hits)
