Miami Heat (29-31 SU, 26-33-1 ATS) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (51-10 SU, 40-20-1 ATS)
NBA Regular Season – March 5, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Where: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH
TV: Local Broadcasts / NBA League Pass
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Cleveland -11.5 (-105) | Miami +11.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Cleveland -625 | Miami +450
Total: Over 227.5 (-110) | Under 227.5 (-110)
Game Overview
The Miami Heat enter this contest dealing with significant injury issues, while Cleveland continues to dominate the Eastern Conference.
The Cavaliers boast a 10-game winning streak and have gone 7-2-1 ATS in that stretch, showing no signs of slowing down.
Meanwhile, Miami has been inconsistent, both straight-up and against the spread, particularly on the road.
Miami Heat Outlook
Miami is dealing with multiple key injuries, including Nikola Jović (hand), Jaime Jaquez (ankle), Andrew Wiggins (ankle), and Kevin Ware (knee).
While they still have Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and Terry Rozier, the lack of depth could be a major issue, especially against a physically imposing Cavaliers squad.
- Offensive Concerns: Miami ranks 25th in points per game (110.2) and struggles to create easy offense.
- Defensive Weaknesses: The Heat allow 111.7 PPG, which ranks middle of the pack but could be an issue against Cleveland’s efficient attack.
- Road Struggles: Miami is just 13-19 SU on the road, and facing a red-hot Cleveland squad makes their path even tougher.
Cleveland Cavaliers Outlook
Cleveland is firing on all cylinders and has been dominant at home (28-4 SU). They rank in the top five in defensive FG% and hold opponents well below league-average efficiency.
Even without Donovan Mitchell potentially playing at full strength (quad injury), the Cavs have enough depth to control this matchup.
- Recent Form: Cleveland is 10-0 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games, consistently covering even large spreads.
- Home Court Advantage: The Cavs are 28-4 SU at home, making them one of the toughest teams to beat in their building.
- Matchup Edge: With Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley controlling the paint, Miami will struggle to generate easy baskets inside.
Key Matchups to Watch
- Bam Adebayo vs. Jarrett Allen: Adebayo will need to carry the load for Miami, but Allen’s defensive presence makes this a tough battle.
- Tyler Herro vs. Cleveland’s Perimeter Defense: If Herro can get hot from deep, Miami has a chance to stay competitive, but Cleveland’s defense ranks top 10 in opponent 3P%.
- Miami’s Depth Issues: The Heat’s injuries leave them with fewer scoring options, which plays right into Cleveland’s defensive strengths.
Betting Pick & Prediction
Best Bet: Cleveland -11.5 (-105)
The Cavaliers have been a machine at home and continue to cover spreads at a high rate. With Miami’s injury concerns and struggles on the road,
this game sets up well for another comfortable Cleveland win.
Prediction: Cleveland 118, Miami 102
Cleveland should control the pace, dominate inside, and pull away in the second half. The Heat’s injuries and inefficient offense make it difficult to see them keeping this close.
Lay the 11.5 points with the Cavs.
