The top two teams in the East collide as the Cleveland Cavaliers (48-10) visit the Boston Celtics (42-17) at TD Garden. Boston is favored by 2.5 points, but Cleveland has been hot against the spread (ATS). Can the Cavs bounce back after failing to cover last time, or will the Celtics take care of business at home? Let's break down the matchup.
Game Details
Cleveland Cavaliers (48-10 SU, 38-19-1 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (42-17 SU, 25-33-1 ATS)
NBA Regular Season – Eastern Conference Showdown
Date/Time: February 28, 2025 | 7:30 PM ET
Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
TV: ESPN
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Boston -2.5 (-105) | Cleveland +2.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Boston -145 | Cleveland +118
Over/Under: 233.5 (o -110 | u -110)
Game Preview & Betting Analysis
The Cleveland Cavaliers continue their dominant season, sitting atop the Eastern Conference with a stellar 48-10 record. They’ve also been an elite ATS team, covering in 38 of 58 games. Before their last meeting with Boston, Cleveland had covered four straight, showing consistency in betting markets.
Boston, despite being the second-best team in the East, has been a disappointment against the spread (25-33-1 ATS). The Celtics are coming off an ugly loss to Detroit, but that could be attributed to a bad scheduling spot (back-to-back game) and possible look-ahead factor toward this matchup.
Head-to-Head Trends
- Cleveland holds a 7-3 straight-up edge in the last 10 meetings.
- ATS: Cleveland is 6-4 ATS vs. Boston in that span.
- The Under is 6-4 in the last 10 matchups.
Cleveland has won both meetings this season, including a 115-111 home win on Dec. 1 and a 112-105 victory on Feb. 4. Both games went Under the total, a key note given tonight's number (233.5).
Key Matchups & X-Factors
Cavs' Offense vs. Celtics' Defense
Cleveland is an efficient shooting team, ranking 2nd in FG% (49.9%) and 1st in 3PT% (39.4%). However, they’ll be without Darius Garland (hip), which could impact their perimeter playmaking.
Boston’s defense is elite, ranking 3rd in points allowed (108.1) and 2nd in opponent FG% (45.2%). They’ve had success slowing teams down, but if Jaylen Brown (thigh) and Jrue Holiday (finger) are limited or out, that could weaken their perimeter defense against Donovan Mitchell.
Celtics' Offense vs. Cavs' Defense
Boston has been middle-of-the-pack offensively, ranking 9th in rebounding and 5th in assists, but their 3-point shooting is only 16th in the league (34.5%). Jayson Tatum will need a big game, especially if Brown and Holiday are compromised.
Cleveland’s defense is underrated, ranking 3rd in opponent assists per game (24.1) and forcing teams into inefficient shots. If they can control the pace, this could turn into a slower, grind-it-out game.
Best Bet & Prediction
Cleveland has owned this matchup recently, and they’ve been a strong ATS team all season. Boston’s poor ATS record (25-33-1) and injury concerns make it tough to trust them here. The Celtics are coming off a frustrating loss but might not be at full strength.
Cleveland’s elite efficiency and defensive discipline give them the edge, especially if Brown and Holiday are limited. The total (233.5) also feels a bit high given their last two meetings both went Under.
Best Bet: Cleveland +2.5
Leaning: Under 233.5
Final Score Prediction: Cavaliers 112, Celtics 107
Trends to Watch
- ✔ Cavs are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 vs. Boston.
- ✔ Boston is just 18-10 at home (relatively weak for a top seed).
- ✔ The Under has hit in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
This should be a tight game, but the value is on Cleveland +2.5, with a solid lean toward the Under. Keep an eye on Boston’s injury report, as Brown and Holiday’s status could shift the odds before tip-off.
Take the Cav's +2.5