Milwaukee Bucks (34-25 SU, 27-30-2 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (32-28 SU, 30-27-3 ATS)
Date/Time: March 1, 2025, 8:30 PM ET
Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
TV: TBD
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Bucks -3.5 (-110) | Mavericks +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Bucks -160 | Mavericks +135
Over/Under: 228.5 (-110)
Game Overview
The Milwaukee Bucks are rolling, winning five of their last six games, with their only loss coming in a tightly contested battle in Houston. They’re also dominating this series, winning four straight against Dallas, including three consecutive victories on the road. The Bucks have covered in three of their last five games and are finding their defensive stride, holding opponents under 115 points in five of their last six matchups.
Dallas, on the other hand, is dealing with a battered lineup. Key big men Dereck Lively, Daniel Gafford, and PJ Washington are all either out or questionable, leaving the Mavericks thin in the paint. While Kyrie Irving and rookie Max Christie have stepped up, the lack of interior presence could be a major issue against Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez.
Milwaukee enters this contest with the 7th-best field goal percentage in the NBA (47.8%) and is elite from deep, ranking second in three-point percentage (38.5%). Dallas, however, struggles to defend the perimeter, allowing opponents to shoot 35.7% from beyond the arc (16th in the NBA).
Key Matchups & Analysis
Bucks' Frontcourt vs. Depleted Dallas Bigs
With Gafford and Lively out, Dallas’ interior defense will be severely weakened. Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo (28 PPG, 19 REB last game) and Brook Lopez (22 PPG) could feast inside. The Mavericks will likely have to rely on small-ball rotations, which could put them at a disadvantage against Milwaukee’s physicality.
Three-Point Shooting Edge
Milwaukee is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league (38.5% 3P), while Dallas ranks in the bottom half of the league in three-point defense. Expect Damian Lillard (if healthy) and Khris Middleton to find clean looks from deep, further stretching a weakened Mavericks defense.
Injury Report & X-Factors
- Bucks: Giannis (calf) and Lillard (hamstring) are both listed as day-to-day, but if they play, Milwaukee should have a significant edge.
- Mavericks: PJ Washington (ankle) is questionable, while Gafford, Lively, and Caleb Martin remain out.
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Bucks have been playing well, covering in three of their last five, and have historically owned this matchup, winning four straight against Dallas. With the Mavericks missing key frontcourt pieces, Milwaukee’s size and three-point shooting should be too much for Dallas to overcome.
Best Bet: Bucks -3.5 (-110)
Projected Score: Bucks 118, Mavericks 108
Expect Milwaukee to control the paint and extend their winning streak against Dallas. Lay the small number with the Bucks.
Take the Bucks -3.5
