Michael Wacha's 2.70 ERA and 1.03 WHIP pair with Will Warren's 10.66 K/9 to form a starter tandem the posted total of 9 does not fully account for. Both offenses are running cold — the Yankees without Stanton and Dominguez, the Royals at a .691 team OPS — yet the number sits a full run above the combined projection of 8.1.
New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals MLB Betting Preview
The total of 9 is the number to attack here, and the case for the under starts with the pitching matchup. You've got Michael Wacha carrying a 2.70 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 63.1 innings against a Yankees lineup running on fumes, and Will Warren posting a 3.61 ERA with 10.66 K/9 against a Royals offense that ranks among the worst in the AL. The combined run total projects to 8.1 runs — nearly a full run below the posted line. That's a legitimate margin, not noise.
The moneyline at -148 for New York exceeds the value threshold, so this is purely a totals play. The under at -108 is clean juice. Kauffman Stadium carries a park factor of 0.95, a mild run-suppressor that nudges the environment in the pitcher's favor. Both offenses are cold, both starters are sharp, and the number feels inflated given the pitching.
Game Information & Betting Odds
- Matchup: New York Yankees (31-22) at Kansas City Royals (22-31)
- Date: Monday, May 25, 2026
- Time: 3:40 PM ET
- Venue: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- TV: ESPN
- Moneyline: New York Yankees -148 / Kansas City Royals +126
- Run Line: New York Yankees -1.5 (+112) / Kansas City Royals +1.5 (-134)
- Total: 9 (Over -112 / Under -108)
- Probable Starters: Will Warren (6-1, 3.61 ERA) vs. Michael Wacha (4-2, 2.70 ERA)
- Park Factor: 0.95 (mild pitcher-friendly)
The Pitching Matchup
The pitching matchup tilts this toward the under, and the Statcast data backs it up on both sides.
Will Warren has been one of the more quietly efficient arms in the AL this season — 3.61 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and only 13 walks in 52.1 innings. The strikeout rate of 10.66 K/9 is elite. His four-seam fastball sits at 93.9 mph, used 42.1% of the time, holding hitters to a .250 xwOBA with a 25.0% whiff rate. His changeup — used 6.1% of the time — generates a 36.4% whiff rate and a microscopic .178 xwOBA against. That's a put-away pitch with genuine swing-and-miss action.
Against the KC lineup, the Statcast matchup signals are mostly favorable for Warren. Bobby Witt Jr. is the genuine threat — .449 xwOBA, 7.2% barrel rate, 32.7% hard-hit rate — and he's the one bat that can change a game in a hurry. But the rest of the order is below-average quality of contact. Carter Jensen carries a 31.0% whiff rate against right-handers, and the Royals' team OPS of .691 reflects an offense that grinds rather than explodes. Warren's sweeper at 84.3 mph with a 23.4% whiff rate should play well against this right-handed-heavy lineup.
On the other side, Michael Wacha has been even sharper. The 2.70 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 63.1 innings puts him among the better starters in the AL this season. His changeup is the anchor — 22.4% usage, 33.6% whiff rate, and a .233 xwOBA against. That pitch against a Yankees lineup that's been cold is a significant problem for New York's hitters. His curveball at 75.9 mph also generates a 28.1% whiff rate, giving him a second swing-and-miss option deeper in counts.
The concern on Wacha is the four-seamer — 28.6% usage at 92.8 mph but a .364 xwOBA against, the worst of any pitch in his arsenal. Aaron Judge sits at a monstrous .572 xwOBA with a 10.8% barrel rate, and he doesn't have a significant platoon split — .571 xwOBA vs. right-handers. Judge has gone 28 plate appearances against Wacha in BvP history hitting just .174, but he's posted 11 strikeouts in those PAs too, which suggests Wacha can work around him — small sample, real signal. Ben Rice at .502 xwOBA and 9.7% barrel rate is another legitimate power threat. But the Yankees are 4-6 in their last 10, and Stanton (IL) and Dominguez (IL) are both out, leaving the lineup shorter than its season OPS of .753 implies.
From an efficiency standpoint on the mound, both starters project to go six-plus innings — which is essential for the under to hold.
The Real Risk: KC's Bullpen and That 8-Run Game
The under case isn't without friction. Kansas City's bullpen is a structural liability — the Royals are missing Matt Strahm (knee) and Carlos Estevez (shoulder), two of their better late-inning options. If Warren or Wacha exits early, the relief picture gets murky fast, particularly on the KC side. Lucas Erceg surrendered three runs in the ninth in a non-save situation just Sunday. That's the kind of mop-up vulnerability that can balloon a late-inning number.
There's also the KC eight-run outburst against Seattle on Sunday that looks alarming at first glance. Context matters: Bryan Woo lasted just 4.2 innings and walked the bases loaded before things unraveled. That's a starter implosion scenario — not the kind of sustained offensive output that threatens a well-constructed under. Wacha and Warren are both operating at a different efficiency level than Woo was on Sunday. The blowup doesn't change the read on this matchup.
Prediction
The game script looks like a low-scoring mid-afternoon affair with both starters keeping traffic off the bases through the middle innings. Warren's elite strikeout rate neutralizes the bottom of KC's order, and Wacha's changeup suppresses a Yankees lineup already running cold without Stanton and Dominguez providing protection for Judge in the lineup.
The over requires both starters to crack early, and there's no compelling evidence pointing that direction. Warren has allowed just 6 HR in 52.1 innings. Wacha's WHIP of 1.03 means he's barely allowing a baserunner per inning. The park plays mild pitcher-friendly at 0.95. The numbers point under, and the juice at -108 is workable.
Bet: Yankees/Royals Under 9 (-108) — 2 units