White Sox vs Twins Free Picks & Tips | Rookie Showdown on the Mound

White Sox vs Twins Free Picks & Tips | Rookie Showdown on the Mound

Game Details

Date/Time: September 4, 2025 — 7:40 PM ET

Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, Minnesota

TV: Fox Sports North

Betting Odds

Point Spread: White Sox +1.5 (-165) / Twins -1.5 (+140)

Moneyline: White Sox +130 / Twins -155

Over/Under Total: 8.5 runs

The betting public has been hammering the under in this matchup, with 65% of tickets coming in on the under despite both teams featuring vulnerable pitching.

Game Overview

The Chicago White Sox head into Thursday's series finale with surprising momentum, having taken the first three games of this four-game set against the Minnesota Twins. After a dramatic 4-3 comeback win last night where Michael A. Taylor's clutch two-run double in the ninth inning secured the victory, the White Sox will be looking to complete the rare road sweep. The Twins, meanwhile, have completely unraveled after their trade deadline sell-off, dropping five straight overall and seeing their once-reliable bullpen implode repeatedly. Their current 3-7 record over their last ten games has them spiraling, while Chicago has found some offensive life behind their young core of rookies.

Key Matchups & Analysis

  • Starting Pitching Matchup
    This matchup features two pitchers still finding their footing at the MLB level. Chicago sends rookie lefty Fraser Ellard (0-2, 4.82 ERA) to the mound for just his third major league start. The southpaw has shown flashes in his 9.1 innings of work, posting a respectable 1.07 WHIP with 13 strikeouts, but control has been an issue with 9 walks. Minnesota counters with Taj Bradley (6-6, 4.61 ERA), who recently admitted he had never studied opposing lineups until his last start—when he promptly delivered 5 innings of one-run ball. Bradley has quality stuff with 95 strikeouts in 111.1 innings, but inconsistency has plagued him throughout the season.
  • Bullpen Comparison
    The White Sox bullpen has surprisingly stabilized in recent weeks, with Jordan Leasure (6 saves) emerging as a legitimate closing option. Grant Taylor and Mike Vasil have provided reliable middle relief, combining for 7 saves this season. Meanwhile, Minnesota's bullpen is in complete disarray after trading away their top five relievers at the deadline. Justin Topa and Cole Sands are their most reliable arms, but both were used extensively in yesterday's loss, leaving the Twins potentially short-handed for tonight's contest.
  • Offensive Trends
    Chicago's young core has energized what was once baseball's most anemic offense. Rookies Colson Montgomery (16 HR in 48 games) and Kyle Teel (.290 with 5 HR) have provided unexpected pop, while Lenyn Sosa continues his breakout season with 19 home runs. The Twins counter with Byron Buxton, who's been one of their few bright spots lately, going 11-for-39 with three doubles, two triples and four home runs over his last 10 games. Trevor Larnach has also provided consistent production with 16 homers on the season.
  • Ballpark Factors
    Target Field plays remarkably neutral with park factors of 1.001 for runs and 1.003 for home runs, ranking 12th in MLB. Neither pitchers nor hitters gain a significant advantage here, though the dimensions play slightly more favorable to left-handed power hitters. With temperatures expected in the mid-70s and minimal wind, conditions should be ideal for baseball tonight.

Prediction

I’m rolling with the White Sox as road underdogs at +130 tonight. While Fraser Ellard is unproven, the White Sox have all the momentum in this series and their young lineup has shown they can produce against Minnesota’s pitching. Taj Bradley has been wildly inconsistent all season, and his recent admission about never studying opposing lineups until his last start is a major red flag—especially against a Chicago lineup that’s seen him multiple times.

The bullpen advantage also swings toward Chicago in this matchup. Minnesota’s relievers have blown leads in two of the three games in this series, and with their top arms potentially fatigued, I expect the Twins to struggle if this game is close late. The White Sox have discovered something with their young core, and at +130, there’s significant value on a team that’s won three straight in this ballpark.

Best Bets

Betting Pick: Take the White Sox +130
Final Score Prediction: White Sox 6, Twins 4

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