White Sox vs Rays Free Picks & Tips | Struggling Starters Square Off in Crucial Rubber Match

White Sox vs Rays Free Picks & Tips | Struggling Starters Square Off in Crucial Rubber Match

Game Details

Chicago White Sox (36-66, 6-4 in last 10) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (53-49, 4-6 in last 10)

Date/Time: July 23, 2025 — 7:35 PM ET

Location: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, Florida

TV: FanDuel Sports Network

Betting Odds

Point Spread: White Sox +1.5 (-135) / Rays −1.5 (+115)

Moneyline: White Sox +173 / Rays -209

Over/Under Total: 9 runs

Public leaning heavily toward the under as Cannon and Bradley both aim to rebound from recent struggles.

Game Overview

The White Sox have surprisingly turned things around coming out of the All-Star break, going 6-4 in their last 10 games including a history-making four-game win streak where they won each contest by 5+ runs. That streak was snapped in yesterday's 4-3 loss where rookie Colson Montgomery launched his first MLB homer. Meanwhile, the Rays are desperately trying to stay in the AL Wild Card race, sitting just a half-game behind Boston for the final spot. Tampa Bay has struggled with consistency, going just 4-6 in their last 10 games, but they have dominated the head-to-head matchup historically, winning 13 of the last 18 meetings including Tuesday's 4-3 victory.

Key Matchups & Analysis

  • Cannon vs. Bradley: Two Young Arms Seeking Consistency
    Jonathan Cannon (4-7, 4.18 ERA) brings a solid but unspectacular arsenal to the mound for Chicago. His 1.38 WHIP indicates traffic on the basepaths, but he's managed to limit damage with 63 strikeouts in 84 innings. Meanwhile, Taj Bradley (6-6, 4.35 ERA) possesses more swing-and-miss stuff with 95 strikeouts in 109.2 innings, but has been plagued by inconsistency this season despite his reputation as one of Tampa's top pitching prospects.
  • Rays' Stolen Base Advantage
    The Rays feature speedster Chandler Simpson (30 SB), who just set the franchise rookie record with three steals in Tuesday's game. Look for Tampa Bay to continue testing Chicago's catchers, who have struggled controlling the running game all season with a caught stealing rate of just 21%.
  • White Sox Power Resurgence
    Chicago has found unexpected power lately, becoming the first team in MLB history to win their first four games out of the All-Star break by 5+ runs. Luis Robert Jr. has shown signs of life with a .500 batting average over his last four games, while rookies like Montgomery are beginning to contribute.
  • Bullpen Disparity
    Tampa Bay holds a significant advantage in the late innings with closer Pete Fairbanks (17 saves) anchoring a relief corps that features multiple setup men with double-digit holds. The White Sox bullpen remains a work in progress, though Mike Vasil and Tyler Alexander have emerged as reliable options.

Prediction

While the Rays are heavy favorites at -209, I see considerable value on the OVER 9 runs in this matchup. Both starters have shown vulnerability – Cannon with his 1.38 WHIP allowing consistent traffic, and Bradley with his tendency to surrender home runs (4.35 ERA). The White Sox offense has suddenly come alive post-break, while the Rays have been manufacturing runs through aggressive baserunning even when not hitting well.

What makes this total particularly attractive is that Steinbrenner Field doesn’t yet have established park factors after becoming the Rays’ temporary home, but early indications show it’s playing much more hitter-friendly than the Trop ever did. The humidity and heat in Tampa also typically carry balls well in evening games this time of year.

I’m also seeing value on the White Sox run line at +1.5 (-135) considering 23 of their 66 losses this season have come by just one run. Chicago’s newfound competitive fire makes them dangerous even as substantial underdogs, and they’ve played the Rays tough in both games this series.

Best Bets

Betting Pick: Take the Over 9
Final Score Prediction: Rays 6, White Sox 5

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