Twins vs Guardians Free Picks & Tips | Pitching Duel Looms as Ryan Faces Williams

Twins vs Guardians Free Picks & Tips | Pitching Duel Looms as Ryan Faces Williams

Game Details

Minnesota Twins (51-57, 23-29 ATS in last 52) vs. Cleveland Guardians (54-54, 27-26 ATS in last 53)

Date/Time: August 1, 2025 — 7:10 PM ET

Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio

TV: CLEG and MNNT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Twins +1.5 (-215) / Guardians −1.5 (+176)

Moneyline: Guardians -116 / Twins -102

Over/Under Total: 7.5 runs

Sharp money has pushed this total up from the open despite both starters' impressive recent performances.

Game Overview

The Minnesota Twins limp into Progressive Field after an unprecedented fire sale at the trade deadline that saw them deal away nearly 40% of their roster, including shortstop Carlos Correa and closer Jhoan Duran. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians have treaded water at exactly .500 and remained relatively quiet at the deadline, keeping star outfielder Steven Kwan despite numerous trade rumors. Cleveland holds a 4-2 edge in the season series, with the Twins' only win being a dominant 11-1 victory back in April.

Key Matchups & Analysis

  • Joe Ryan vs. Cleveland's Lineup
    Ryan has been the Twins' most consistent starter, posting a stellar 2.82 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with 137 strikeouts in 121.1 innings. His ability to limit walks (just 24 BB) makes him dangerous against a Guardians lineup that relies on manufacturing runs.
  • Gavin Williams' Recent Form
    Williams has shown significant improvement in his last six starts, posting a 2.78 ERA during that stretch. His control issues (60 BB in 110.1 innings) remain a concern, but he's been much sharper with his command recently.
  • Twins' Depleted Bullpen
    After trading away five key relievers including Duran, Jax, Stewart, Varland, and Coulombe, Minnesota's bullpen is essentially starting from scratch. Cole Sands becomes their de facto high-leverage option with just 2 saves and 8 holds on the season.
  • Jose Ramirez's Historic July
    Ramirez enters August after a historic July where he hit 8 home runs and stole 10 bases – just the fourth time in MLB history a player has accomplished that feat in July. He's hitting .298 with 21 homers and 31 stolen bases on the season.

Prediction

I’m backing the UNDER 7.5 (-122) in this divisional matchup. Despite the Twins’ roster overhaul, they still have their ace Joe Ryan taking the mound, and he’s been outstanding this season with a 2.82 ERA and elite 0.92 WHIP. Ryan has become Minnesota’s stopper, and with a 10-5 record on a mediocre team, he’s shown the ability to keep games close regardless of his supporting cast.

On the other side, Gavin Williams has quietly put together a solid season for Cleveland with a 3.51 ERA, and he’s been particularly effective at Progressive Field, which ranks 20th in MLB with a 0.972 park factor for runs. Williams’ 109 strikeouts in 110.1 innings demonstrate his ability to miss bats when his command is on.

While the Twins’ bullpen has been completely dismantled, their lack of high-leverage options likely means Ryan will be asked to go deeper into the game. Cleveland’s offense ranks just 21st in runs scored, and Minnesota’s lineup has posted just a .245 batting average over their last 10 games while being outscored by 19 runs.

The Guardians are 6-4 in their last 10 games with a solid 3.33 ERA during that stretch, showing their pitching staff is hitting stride. With both teams trending toward pitching-dominant approaches, I expect a low-scoring affair that stays under the total.

Best Bets

Betting Pick: Take the Under 7.5 -122
Final Score Prediction: Guardians 3, Twins 2

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