The total opened at 7 with sharp money coming in on the over despite two talented arms taking the mound.
Game Overview
The MLB-best Detroit Tigers (60-40) snapped a six-game losing streak with a 2-1 victory over Texas on Sunday behind Cy Young contender Tarik Skubal's dominant performance. Now they face another pitching phenom in Paul Skenes as they visit the struggling Pirates, who have lost 11 of their last 12 games including a demoralizing weekend sweep at the hands of the White Sox. Pittsburgh (39-61) has fallen below .500 in their all-time franchise record for the first time since 1903, a sign of just how disastrous their 2025 campaign has become.
Key Matchups & Analysis
- Jack Flaherty vs. Paul Skenes
This pitching matchup features two high-strikeout righties on very different trajectories. Flaherty (5-9, 4.65 ERA) has struggled to find consistency with Detroit, posting a high-end 11.1 K/9 rate but allowing too many hard-hit balls. Meanwhile, Skenes (4-8, 2.01 ERA) has been nothing short of brilliant for Pittsburgh despite his losing record, posting an elite 0.93 WHIP with 131 strikeouts in 121 innings. - Detroit's Elite Offense vs. Pittsburgh's Struggles
The Tigers' offense has been a revelation this season, scoring 4.88 runs per game (6th in MLB) while the Pirates rank dead last with just 3.34 runs per game. Detroit has particular advantages in power metrics with 1.26 home runs per game compared to Pittsburgh's 0.67. - Tigers' Bullpen Concerns
While Detroit boasts baseball's best record, their bullpen remains a potential weakness. Their 4.15 bullpen ERA ranks 18th in MLB, and the recent performances from setup men like Tommy Kahnle have been concerning, though closer Will Vest (16 saves) has been steady. - Pirates' Home Park Advantage
Despite their struggles, PNC Park provides slight pitcher-friendly conditions that could benefit Skenes even more. The stadium has a 1.054 runs factor but suppresses home runs with a 0.893 HR factor, potentially negating some of Detroit's power advantage.