Royals vs Marlins Free Picks & Tips | Elite Young Arms Square Off in Miami

Royals vs Marlins Free Picks & Tips | Elite Young Arms Square Off in Miami

Game Details

Kansas City Royals (47-52, 5-5 in last 10) vs. Miami Marlins (46-51, 6-4 in last 10)

Date/Time: July 20, 2025 — 1:40 PM ET

Location: loanDepot park, Miami, Florida

TV: Bally Sports

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Kansas City -1.5 (+135) / Miami +1.5 (-155)

Moneyline: Kansas City -128 / Miami +107

Over/Under Total: 7.5 runs

Early sharp money has moved the Royals from -120 to -128 despite strong recent play from Miami.

Game Overview

The Miami Marlins seek their fifth consecutive victory and a series sweep as they host the Kansas City Royals in Sunday's interleague finale. Miami has gone 21-10 since mid-June, turning their season around with stellar pitching and timely hitting. Meanwhile, the Royals have struggled to a 5-5 mark over their last 10 games and now sit 12 games behind Detroit in the AL Central. This pitching matchup features two of baseball's most surprising young arms in Kris Bubic (7-6, 2.48 ERA) and Janson Junk (4-1, 2.68 ERA), both performing well above preseason expectations.

Key Matchups & Analysis

  • Elite Command vs. Powerful Lineup
    Janson Junk has displayed exceptional control this season with just 4 walks in 50.1 innings (0.71 BB/9), but faces a Royals lineup featuring Salvador Perez, who has 5 homers in his last 10 games including yesterday's game-tying shot.
  • Bubic's Resurgent Season
    Kris Bubic has been revelatory in 2025, posting a stellar 2.48 ERA with 113 strikeouts across 108.2 innings. His K/9 rate of 9.36 represents a career-best mark and his ability to generate swings and misses will be crucial against Miami's patient hitters.
  • Bullpen Advantage
    Kansas City holds a significant edge in the late innings with Carlos Estevez (25 saves, 2nd in MLB) anchoring their relief corps. Miami has used a closer-by-committee approach with four different relievers recording saves, including Anthony Bender who closed out yesterday's victory.
  • Bobby Witt Jr.'s Road Struggles
    After seeing his 27-game road hitting streak end yesterday, Kansas City's star shortstop will be looking to start a new streak. Witt's 32 doubles lead the American League, but he went 0-for-4 yesterday against Quantrill and the Marlins bullpen.

Prediction

I’m backing the UNDER 7.5 RUNS (-110) as my top play in this matchup. Both starting pitchers have been exceptional this season, with Bubic’s 2.48 ERA and Junk’s microscopic 0.99 WHIP suggesting a low-scoring affair. While loanDepot park ranks surprisingly high in run production this season (1.131 park factor, 2nd in MLB), these pitchers’ specific skillsets should neutralize that effect. Bubic’s swing-and-miss stuff (9.36 K/9) combined with Junk’s elite command (MLB-best 0.71 BB/9) creates the perfect recipe for a pitchers’ duel.

Additionally, the Royals have the second-best team ERA in the American League at 3.53, while the Marlins’ bullpen has allowed just 2.97 runs per game over their last 10 contests. With both teams featuring strong relief options and starting pitchers who work efficiently, I expect this game to stay under the total. Even with Salvador Perez’s recent power surge, the combination of morning start time and elite pitching should keep scoring at a premium.

Best Bets

Betting Pick: Take the Under 7.5 runs
Final Score Prediction: Royals 3, Marlins 2

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