Nolan McLean's 10.7 K/9 and a curveball opponents are posting a .074 xwOBA against draws a Mets lineup stripped of Lindor, Alvarez, Polanco, and potentially Soto — a group that managed two runs across three games in Miami. Nick Lodolo's 7.20 ERA complicates the equation on the other side, but the run environment points firmly in one direction regardless of how quickly he unravels.
Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets MLB Betting Preview
The Mets open at -162 on the moneyline, a price that reflects McLean's edge on the mound but also prices in a lineup that's barely functional right now. The total sits at 7.5, with the under priced at -115. That number is the bet worth examining here — not because the game is a lock to stay quiet, but because the injury context and pitching matchup both point toward a suppressed run environment that the market is only partially accounting for.
The Mets moneyline at -162 is a hard pass. That's well beyond the juice threshold where the edge holds up as a standalone play. McLean is the real deal, and rightfully so — but you're not getting paid enough to lay that price with a compromised offense behind him and a bullpen running thin. The total is where the real betting angle lives today.
The Reds arrive from Cincinnati after a rainout Sunday, splitting a doubleheader with the Cardinals on Saturday. The Mets just got swept in Miami, scoring a grand total of two runs across three games. Both offenses are ice cold coming in, and the pitching matchup tilts this toward a low-scoring game on at least one side of the ledger.
Game Information & Betting Odds
- Matchup: Cincinnati Reds (27-25) @ New York Mets (22-31)
- Date: Monday, May 25, 2026
- Time: 4:10 PM ET
- Venue: Citi Field, New York
- TV: MLB.TV, Reds.TV, SNY
- Moneyline: Cincinnati Reds +136 / New York Mets -162
- Run Line: New York Mets -1.5 (+138) / Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-166)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -105 / Under -115)
- Probable Starters: Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs Nolan McLean (NYM)
- Park Factor: Citi Field — 0.97 (pitcher-friendly)
The Pitching Matchup
Nolan McLean is the anchor of this play. His 3.57 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 10.7 K/9 over 58 innings represent genuine ace-level production, not a small-sample illusion. He checks every efficiency box on the mound: elite strikeout rate, near-zero walk issues (17 BB in 58 IP), and command metrics that suppress hard contact. His sinker — thrown 35.5% of the time at 94.8 mph — generates a .259 xwOBA against, which is genuinely elite. His curveball is the swing-and-miss weapon: 42.3% whiff rate, .074 xwOBA allowed, meaning hitters who don't chase it still can't do much with it.
Against this specific Reds lineup, that curveball becomes a problem for Cincinnati's strikeout-prone hitters. Eugenio Suárez carries a 30.2% strikeout rate and 33.5% whiff rate, and his .308 xwOBA against right-handed pitching signals a genuine weakness McLean can exploit. Elly De La Cruz (.495 xwOBA overall, .499 vs RHP) is the legitimate threat in this lineup — 12 home runs, 9.7% barrel rate, and the kind of raw power that can change a run total with one swing. The concern is that De La Cruz doesn't need Lodolo to pitch well for Cincinnati to put up a crooked number. McLean will need to navigate the 2-spot carefully.
Now for the uncomfortable half of this analysis: Nick Lodolo has been genuinely bad. A 7.20 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and 4 home runs allowed in just 15 innings paints a picture of a pitcher who can't strand runners and can't avoid the big hit. His sinker is being punished — opponents are posting a .558 xwOBA against it, which is essentially a batting-practice pitch at this point. His curveball (.285 xwOBA, 38.6% whiff) flashes real quality, but he's thrown it only 27.6% of the time, and his changeup has a brutal 5.3% put-away rate.
But here's the problem with writing off the under because of Lodolo: bad pitchers get yanked early. If Lodolo gives up 3 runs in 3 innings and exits, the Reds bullpen takes over — and while Cincinnati's pen is also dealing with Emilio Pagan on the IL, they've shown enough competence to prevent a blowout in middle relief. The risk isn't that Lodolo pitches seven innings of damage. It's that he implodes in the second inning and forces the Reds half of the total to 4 or 5 before the pen slams the door on the Mets side. That's still potentially an under game if McLean is holding New York to 1-2 runs.
The Mets lineup reinforces that scenario. Francisco Lindor, Francisco Alvarez, Jorge Polanco, Luis Robert Jr., and Ronny Mauricio are all on the IL. Juan Soto is day-to-day with a fever — he was scratched Sunday and the Mets went 0-for-everything in Miami without him. The projected lineup tonight includes Carson Benge, Bo Bichette, A.J. Ewing, Mark Vientos, and Brett Baty — a rotation of replacement-level and fringe contributors at the top of a lineup that was already averaging under four runs per game at full strength. Against McLean's .259 sinker xwOBA and a curveball opponents can't do anything with, this group is in serious trouble.
Prediction
McLean's arsenal suppresses the Reds' contact hitters enough to keep Cincinnati in the 2-3 run range. The bigger variable is Lodolo and how quickly he unravels — but even a rough early outing probably produces a 3-4 run Reds half of the total, not a 6-run explosion. Meanwhile, a Mets offense that scored two runs total across a three-game series in Miami, against a lineup stripped of Lindor, Alvarez, Polanco, and potentially Soto, is not going to do damage against a pitcher with a 10.7 K/9 and a curveball generating .074 xwOBA. Citi Field's 0.97 park factor nudges this further toward the pitchers. The number is 7.5. The combined run environment here points comfortably under it.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-115) — 2 units