Cincinnati Reds (83-80) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (94-69)
The Dodgers enter as heavy favorites behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto, with the line moving toward -255. Cincinnati comes in at +227, a significant underdog spot after dropping the opener of the series.
Game Overview
The Dodgers (94-69) secured another division crown and remain among MLB’s most dangerous offenses, averaging 5.12 runs per game (2nd in MLB). Cincinnati (83-80) clawed its way into October with balanced play but sits in the middle of the pack offensively at 4.42 runs per game.
Head-to-head, Los Angeles has owned the matchup, winning 6 of the last 7 meetings, including a 10-5 victory on Sept. 30. At Dodger Stadium this year, LA has outscored the Reds 28–9 across four games.
Key Matchups & Analysis
Starting Pitching Matchup
Zack Littell (RHP, CIN): 10-8, 3.81 ERA. Won his last 3 starts, allowing just 4 ER across 15.1 innings. Littell relies on command and soft contact rather than overpowering stuff.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP, LAD): 12-8, 2.38 ERA. Has been dominant in recent outings, including 6 shutout innings vs. Arizona (Sept. 25). At Dodger Stadium this year, he’s been particularly sharp, with his strikeout-heavy approach matching up well against Cincinnati’s aggressive bats.
Bullpen Comparison
Reds relievers: 13.1 innings in last 3 games.
Dodgers relievers: 11.2 innings in last 3 games.
LA’s depth gives them a slight advantage, though Cincinnati has shown resilience in high-leverage spots.
Offensive Trends
Reds: 8.22 hits/game, 3.26 walks/game. Run production inconsistent, ranking 18th overall. Elly De La Cruz remains the X-factor.
Dodgers: 8.59 hits/game, 3.58 walks/game. Ranked 2nd in scoring and 1st in home scoring (5.57 runs/game at Dodger Stadium). Their balance of power and patience is a clear edge.
Ballpark Factors
Dodger Stadium suppresses runs overall (0.940 park factor), but boosts home runs (1.122). This benefits the Dodgers’ power bats and Yamamoto’s ground-ball arsenal. The evening marine layer adds another challenge for visiting hitters like Cincinnati.
Recent Head-to-Head Results (2025)
stats.sportsbettingstats.com
Sep 30: LAD 10, CIN 5 (Snell vs Greene)
Aug 27: LAD 5, CIN 1 (Ohtani vs Lodolo)
Aug 26: LAD 6, CIN 3 (Kershaw vs Martinez)
Aug 25: LAD 7, CIN 0 (Sheehan vs Greene)
Jul 30: CIN 5, LAD 2 (Martinez vs Ohtani)
Jul 29: LAD 5, CIN 4 (Glasnow vs Lodolo)
Jul 28: LAD 5, CIN 2 (Yamamoto vs Burns)
Dodgers lead season series 6–1.
Betting Trends
stats.sportsbettingstats.com
Reds O/U: 61-95-7 (61 Unders on season).
Dodgers O/U: 78-78-7 (even split).
Under trends: CIN 7-3 in last 10 road games; Yamamoto’s last 2 starts both stayed under.
Final Outlook
Yamamoto’s recent dominance, LA’s home scoring edge (5.57 runs/game), and a 6–1 season H2H record point strongly toward the Dodgers. The total at 8.0 is intriguing given Cincinnati’s 61 unders on the season and Yamamoto’s ability to control games. A 5–2 type contest in LA’s favor fits the data.
Lean: Dodgers ML / Under 8 runs.