Red Sox vs Twins Free Picks & Tips | Bullpen Battle After 90-Minute Rain Delay Drama

Red Sox vs Twins Free Picks & Tips | Bullpen Battle After 90-Minute Rain Delay Drama

Game Details

Boston Red Sox (57-51, 4-6 ATS in last 10) vs. Minnesota Twins (51-55, 6-4 ATS in last 10)

Date/Time: July 29, 2025 — 7:40 PM ET

Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, Minnesota

TV: NESN

Point Spread: Boston -1.5 (+115) / Minnesota +1.5 (-135)

Moneyline: Boston -155 / Minnesota +135

Over/Under Total: 8.5 runs

Nearly 62% of the public money is backing the over after last night's weather-delayed 5-4 thriller.

Game Overview

The Red Sox look to bounce back after a bizarre, rain-delayed 5-4 loss to the Twins last night where closer Jordan Hicks blew a ninth-inning lead following a 90-minute weather delay. Boston has gone 15-7 in July despite last night's setback and holds the second AL Wild Card spot. Minnesota, meanwhile, appears to be selling at the deadline after trading starter Chris Paddack to Detroit, but showed fight in Monday's comeback win. The Twins have actually covered in six of their last ten games despite sitting four games below .500 overall.

Key Matchups & Analysis

  • Giolito vs. Twins Bullpen Game
    Boston's Lucas Giolito (6-2, 3.97 ERA) takes the mound looking to rebound from a rough outing against Philadelphia where he allowed 5 runs in 4 innings. Minnesota counters with a bullpen game after trading scheduled starter Chris Paddack, with prospect Pierson Ohl making his MLB debut.
  • Red Sox Bullpen Situation
    Boston's bullpen is thin tonight with Aroldis Chapman (back spasms) unavailable and Garrett Whitlock still recovering from motion sickness during the team's turbulent flight to Minnesota. Jordan Hicks threw 25 pitches in Sunday's game and 17 more in last night's loss.
  • Roman Anthony's Emerging Leadoff Role
    Boston rookie Roman Anthony has solidified himself as the team's leadoff man, reaching base four times (2 hits, 2 walks) Monday including the go-ahead RBI single in the ninth. His .385 OBP provides the Red Sox with the table-setter they've needed.
  • Target Field Factor
    Target Field plays essentially neutral for both runs (1.001) and home runs (1.003), but weather conditions (70% humidity, light winds) could keep balls carrying tonight. Both teams combined for just one homer Monday despite multiple hard-hit balls.

Prediction

I’m taking the OVER 8.5 RUNS (-110) as my top play tonight. This pitching matchup strongly favors runs with Giolito coming off a shaky start and the Twins cobbling together a bullpen game led by a rookie making his MLB debut. Minnesota’s relief corps will be stretched thin after yesterday’s nine innings of work, while Boston’s bullpen is already compromised without Chapman and possibly Whitlock. The Red Sox offense is clicking with Alex Bregman homering in consecutive games and Wilyer Abreu breaking out of his slump with three hits last night. On the Minnesota side, DaShawn Keirsey Jr. showed unexpected pop with a homer Monday, and Brooks Lee delivered the walk-off hit. Neither pitching staff is positioned for success tonight. Adding to the over case, Boston’s bullpen has issued far too many free passes lately, walking six batters and hitting three more in Monday’s game. That kind of traffic on the basepaths is a recipe for runs, especially when facing a Twins lineup that has shown patience with the third-most walks in the American League this season.

Best Bets

Betting Pick: Take the Over 8.5
Final Score Prediction: Red Sox 6, Twins 5

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