The public is backing the Cubs at home, but smart money is taking a hard look at the red-hot Red Sox and their modest plus-money value.
Game Overview
The Boston Red Sox are the hottest team in baseball, riding a 10-game winning streak into the All-Star break where they outscored opponents by an astounding 46 runs. Now they face the NL Central-leading Cubs, who've been nearly unbeatable at Wrigley Field with a 30-16 home record. Chicago holds a slim one-game lead over the Brewers in their division race, while Boston has surged into Wild Card position. Historically, these iconic franchises have produced memorable interleague matchups, though this marks their first meeting of 2025.
Key Matchups & Analysis
- Giolito's Resurgence vs Cubs' Home Dominance
Lucas Giolito has been spectacular in his last six starts, not allowing more than two runs in any outing, including four shutout performances. The former White Sox ace knows Wrigley Field well, but the Cubs have the 8th best home OPS in baseball at .752 this season. - Red Sox Offense vs Colin Rea
Boston's lineup has been crushing the ball, posting a .299 batting average during their win streak. Rea has been solid but unspectacular with a 3.91 ERA, and his 65 strikeouts in 92 innings suggest he's more of a contact pitcher, which could play into Boston's hands. - Bullpen Battle
The Cubs have one of MLB's most reliable bullpens led by Daniel Palencia (12 saves) and Ryan Pressly, while Boston counters with veteran closer Aroldis Chapman (17 saves) and setup man Greg Weissert (15 holds). Boston's bullpen has been nearly perfect during their win streak, posting a 1.17 ERA. - Park Factors
Despite its reputation, Wrigley Field has actually suppressed scoring this season with a 0.898 run factor (25th in MLB). With a game-time temperature around 74°F and light winds, conditions should favor pitchers today.