Two starters posting sub-3.60 ERAs and elite walk rates take the mound at Yankee Stadium while the home lineup is missing Stanton, Dominguez, and a Judge stuck at 1-for-24. The total is sitting at 7 with soft under juice at -105 — the market is pricing two competent arms, but the full scope of that Yankees lineup thinning hasn't fully settled into the number.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees MLB Betting Preview
The Yankees come into this afternoon game having lost three straight, including Friday night's 4-2 defeat to the Rays in which a José Caballero error opened the floodgates in the eighth. Gerrit Cole looked sharp in his return from Tommy John surgery, but Tampa Bay took the game anyway — and now the series shifts to two pitchers who have been every bit as effective as Cole's return implied the total should be low.
The total is set at 7, with the over priced at -115 and the under at -105. That soft under juice is telling. The market isn't aggressively pricing a pitcher's duel — it's pricing two competent starters and asking you whether the bullpens hold. The pitching matchup tilts this toward the under, and the -105 price is the cleanest entry point on this board. The moneyline and run line aren't where the value lives — the total tells the whole story.
Game Information & Betting Odds
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays (34-15) at New York Yankees (30-22)
- Date/Time: Saturday, May 23, 2026 | 1:35 PM ET
- Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- TV: MLB.TV, Rays.TV, YES Network
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay Rays +122 / New York Yankees -144
- Run Line: New York Yankees -1.5 (+150) / Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-182)
- Total: 7 (Over -115 / Under -105)
- Probable Starters: Drew Rasmussen (TB) vs. Ryan Weathers (NYY)
- Rays Record: 34-15, Last 10: 8-2, Run Diff: +42
- Yankees Record: 30-22, Last 10: 4-6, Run Diff: +65
The Pitching Matchup
Drew Rasmussen has been quietly one of the most efficient starters in the American League this season. His 3.19 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 48 innings are anchored by remarkable command — just 9 walks against 45 strikeouts. A starter who issues fewer than two walks per nine innings doesn't generate traffic, and games without traffic don't produce big innings. That's the core of the under case from the Tampa Bay side.
Arsenal-wise, Rasmussen leans heavily on a cutter (34.3% usage, 90.2 mph) that produces a 21.4% whiff rate and an xwOBA-against of .293 — his primary weapon for getting ahead in counts. His changeup, used 9.3% of the time, is his swing-and-miss pitch at a 45.7% whiff rate with an xwOBA of just .222. His sinker (20.4%) generates weak contact with an xwOBA of .223. That's a three-pitch mix designed to limit hard contact, not just collect strikeouts.
The BvP data on the Yankees lineup against Rasmussen is limited but pointed: Aaron Judge is 0-for-15 lifetime against him (15 PA) with 8 strikeouts. That's the most meaningful head-to-head signal in this dataset. Judge's career xwOBA sits at .565 — he's one of the best hitters in baseball — but his whiff rate against Rasmussen's arsenal checks in at 31.5%, and he's currently stuck in a 1-for-24 slide with 11 consecutive games without an RBI. That's not a slump you trust to break against a pitcher he's historically struggled to square up.
Ryan Weathers is the other half of this equation. His 10.9 K/9 with only 13 walks in 50.1 innings gives him a strikeout-to-walk profile that suppresses scoring independently of run prevention. His standout pitch is a sweeper (22.7% usage, 82.4 mph) with an eye-popping 48.2% whiff rate and an xwOBA of just .187 — that's an elite put-away offering. He mixes in a changeup (31.2% whiff, .249 xwOBA) and a slider (37.8% whiff, .205 xwOBA) to keep hitters off his four-seam. His four-seam fastball does carry an xwOBA of .436, which is the concern — hitters can do damage when they sit on it.
The caveat here is Weathers' home run rate: 8 HR allowed in 50.1 IP is above average, and Ben Rice (1.030 OPS, 16 HR, xwOBA .514) is one of the hottest bats in baseball right now. Rice is 0-for-8 in limited BvP against Weathers with 4 strikeouts, but small samples cut both ways. He's the one swing that can single-handedly blow up an under ticket. That's not a reason to fade the under — it's a reason to respect the risk.
The Rays' contact-first lineup (team AVG .261, SLG .390, 41 HR) isn't built to put up crooked numbers. Junior Caminero (xwOBA .416) and Jonathan Aranda (xwOBA .421) are legitimate threats against Weathers, but Weathers' sweeper is particularly effective against right-handed bats, and both hitters carry strikeout rates above 15%.
Rejected Angles: Moneyline and Run Line
The Yankees -144 moneyline is a ceiling problem. Paying -144 for a team that has dropped 10 of 14, is missing Giancarlo Stanton and Jasson Dominguez, and has a lineup currently running cold at the top — Judge is 1-for-24 — requires a level of institutional confidence that the recent results don't support. The implied probability at -144 is approximately 59%, and a team in this form doesn't clear that bar reliably against the best club in the American League.
The Yankees -1.5 (+150) run line is a different kind of problem. The +150 price is genuinely attractive, but the game script doesn't support it. Tampa Bay is 34-15 and 4-0 against New York this season. The Rays are the better team in this series, and asking a cold Yankees offense to win by two or more against a pitcher with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP is too much to ask for. The price reflects the difficulty. Pass.
Prediction
Two starting pitchers posting sub-3.60 ERAs with elite walk rates, a Yankees lineup thinned by the IL absences of Stanton and Dominguez, and Aaron Judge locked in the worst extended slump of his career — the numbers point to a low-scoring afternoon. The under at -105 sits at favorable juice for what the pitching matchup is offering. Rasmussen works five-to-six efficient innings, Weathers matches him on the other side with that 48.2% whiff sweeper doing the heavy lifting, and the bullpens close out a final that lands under the number.
The Ben Rice blowup scenario is real — a 1.030 OPS hitter with 16 home runs can end an under ticket with one swing, and Weathers' four-seam xwOBA of .436 means the risk is live, not theoretical. But betting the under doesn't mean betting against Rice going deep; it means betting that the full game context — two quality starters, a depleted Yankees lineup, limited traffic against Rasmussen's 1.00 WHIP — produces a final score that stays at or below 6 total runs more often than the -105 price implies.
Bet: Under 7 (-105), 2 units — bet the combined runs scored by both teams to finish below 7.