Tampa Bay Rays (54-55, 47-62 ATS in last 109) vs. New York Yankees (59-49, 47-61 ATS in last 108)
Date/Time: July 31, 2025 — 1:05 PM ET
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York
TV: YES, FDSSUN
Moneyline: Rays -102 / Yankees -116
Run Line: Rays -1.5 (+155) / Yankees +1.5 (-188)
Over/Under Total: 8.5 runs
Public money shifting toward the Yankees with bettors skeptical of Stroman despite his recent struggles.
Game Overview
The Rays enter this finale below .500 for the first time since May 24, going just 8-20 since June 27 after an impressive 25-9 stretch. Tampa Bay just traded away innings leader Zack Littell but got a boost with Brandon Lowe (ankle/foot) returning to the lineup last night. Meanwhile, the Yankees have won the first two games of this series in dramatic fashion, with new addition Ryan McMahon delivering a walk-off hit in the 11th inning on Wednesday. New York sits four games behind Toronto in the AL East and continues to be active at the trade deadline, acquiring Austin Slater from Chicago yesterday.
Key Matchups & Analysis
- Pepiot vs. Yankee Stadium Power
Ryan Pepiot (6-8, 3.42 ERA) has been relatively steady for Tampa, but brings concerning trends into this matchup. Despite solid overall numbers, he's struggled with control (42 BB in 126.1 IP) and will face a Yankees lineup in a park that boosts home runs significantly with a 1.134 HR factor. - Stroman's Rocky Return
Marcus Stroman (2-2, 6.09 ERA) has been inconsistent since returning from injury, posting a troubling 1.59 WHIP across 34 innings. His command issues (16 BB) could be exploited by Tampa's patient approach, though the Rays' offense has been sputtering during their recent slide. - Bullpen Advantage: Yankees
After yesterday's 11-inning marathon, both bullpens will be taxed, but New York holds an edge with Tim Hill throwing a perfect 11th and not allowing an earned run in 25 of his last 30 appearances. Tampa's Pete Fairbanks has been shaky recently, blowing a save opportunity last night. - Volpe's Defensive Struggles vs. Offensive Production
Anthony Volpe leads MLB with 16 errors after another miscue last night, but he's simultaneously providing offensive spark with home runs in consecutive games including the game-tying shot in the 9th inning yesterday.
Betting Pick & Rationale
I'm backing the OVER 8.5 RUNS (-115) as my top play today. While Pepiot's 3.42 ERA looks solid, his peripherals suggest regression facing a Yankees lineup in a park that boosts home runs. The Rays starter has walked 42 batters and will face a patient Yankees lineup that capitalizes on mistakes. Meanwhile, Stroman has been completely unreliable with a 6.09 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, showing no signs of returning to his earlier form. After an emotionally draining 11-inning affair last night, both bullpens will be compromised, setting up ideal conditions for runs. The daytime start after a night game further tilts this toward hitters maintaining an advantage against tired relievers.
Predicted Final Score: Yankees 6, Rays 4