Paul Skenes' disastrous 67.50 ERA meets Andrew Abbott's pristine 0.00 ERA in a Wednesday matinee where the total sits at 7.5. After Pittsburgh exploded for eight runs Tuesday, the market expects another slugfest, but the pitching matchup tells a different story entirely.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Preview
I'm targeting the under here, but I'll be honest – Pittsburgh's offensive explosion yesterday has me second-guessing myself. When I see Oneil Cruz homering twice and the Pirates dropping eight runs on Cincinnati, my gut wants to chase the over. But that's exactly why I'm forcing myself to stick with the data and take the under 7.5 runs.
Andrew Abbott is the reason I'm confident in this play. His 0.00 ERA through six innings isn't fluky – the 1.33 WHIP and 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio show real command. Meanwhile, Paul Skenes got destroyed for five runs in 0.2 innings, but here's what keeps me from writing him off completely: zero home runs allowed and that 13.5 K/9 rate suggests his stuff is still electric. This looks like first-start nerves and command issues, not a pitcher who's lost his edge.
The concern that's eating at me? Pittsburgh just torched these same Reds for eight runs less than 24 hours ago. Cruz looked locked in at the plate, Ryan O'Hearn and Bryan Reynolds went back-to-back, and the entire lineup seemed to have figured something out. But I keep coming back to the fact that they did that damage against Brandon Williamson, who was making his first appearance since elbow surgery. Abbott is a completely different challenge.
Game Information & Betting Odds
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
- Date: Wednesday, April 1, 2026
- Time: 12:40 PM ET
- Location: Great American Ball Park
- TV: MLB.TV, Reds.TV
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh -168 / Cincinnati +139
- Run Line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-120) / Pittsburgh -1.5 (+100)
- Total: 7.5 (Over +102 / Under -122)
- Probable Starters: Paul Skenes (0-1, 67.50 ERA) vs Andrew Abbott (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
- Records: Pittsburgh Pirates 1-3, Cincinnati Reds 3-1
The Pitching Matchup
I considered the moneyline briefly – backing Cincinnati at +139 with Abbott on the mound seems logical – but I'm not buying the Reds at that price after what Pittsburgh just did to them. The real edge is in this total, where I think the market overreacted to Tuesday's fireworks.
Andrew Abbott has been everything Cincinnati needed in his first outing. That 0.00 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP across six innings shows he's in complete control. Four strikeouts against just one walk is the kind of command that shuts down hot offenses. The Great American Ball Park factor of 1.10 is only slightly hitter-friendly, not enough to worry me given Abbott's current form.
Paul Skenes is where this bet gets tricky. That 67.50 ERA is horrific, but I'm not panicking about his long-term prospects. The underlying numbers tell a different story – he struck out one in 0.2 innings (that 13.5 K/9 rate) and crucially, allowed zero home runs despite everything else falling apart. This reads like a pitcher who couldn't find the strike zone in his debut, not someone who got hit hard.
Here's my biggest concern: Pittsburgh's offense looks completely different than it did in their first two games, where they managed just four total runs. Cruz's three-hit, three-RBI performance yesterday, combined with the back-to-back homers from O'Hearn and Reynolds, suggests this lineup might have found its rhythm against Cincinnati pitching specifically.
Prediction
I'm fighting my instincts here because that eight-run explosion yesterday makes me want to chase the over. But Abbott represents such a massive step up in pitching quality from what Pittsburgh faced Tuesday that I have to trust the under. Skenes should settle down – the swing-and-miss stuff is clearly still there based on his strikeout rate, and I expect much better command in his second start.
The market moved this total up after yesterday's slugfest, but they're pricing in the wrong pitcher matchup. Abbott isn't Williamson coming back from elbow surgery – he's a guy who's found his groove and should neutralize Pittsburgh's hot bats.
I'm backing the under 7.5 runs despite my concerns about Pittsburgh's offensive explosion. Abbott is the difference-maker here.
Projected Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3, Cincinnati Reds 4
Best Bet: Under 7.5 runs (-122)