Pirates vs Cubs Free Picks & Tips | Battle of Bullpen Arms in NL Central Showdown

Pirates vs Cubs Free Picks & Tips | Battle of Bullpen Arms in NL Central Showdown

Game Details

Pirates vs Cubs Free Picks & Tips | Battle of Bullpen Arms in NL Central Showdown

Date/Time: August 17, 2025 — 2:20 PM ET

Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois

TV: Fox Sports

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Pirates +1.5 (-130) / Cubs −1.5 (+110)

Moneyline: Pirates +158 / Cubs -193

Over/Under Total: 7.5 runs

The public is heavily backing the Cubs as big home favorites despite two close, low-scoring games to start the series.

Game Overview

The Pirates enter this rubber match having split the first two games of the series, but they've dropped six of their last eight overall. Meanwhile, the Cubs finally snapped their franchise-record 35-game drought without a comeback win yesterday, improving to 8-5 since the trade deadline. The Cubs have dominated this season series, winning six of nine matchups, with most games being low-scoring affairs (seven of nine have gone under the total).

Key Matchups & Analysis

  • Bullpen Game Brewing
    Both teams are sending relievers to start this game, with Carmen Mlodzinski (2-7, 4.20 ERA) opening for Pittsburgh and Javier Assad (0-1, 9.00 ERA) making just his second start for Chicago. Mlodzinski has been much better out of the bullpen (2.55 ERA) than as a starter (5.67 ERA) this season.
  • Cubs' Offensive Struggles
    Despite yesterday's win, Chicago's offense continues to sputter, having scored three or fewer runs in 10 of their 14 games this month. Kyle Tucker (.190 since July 1) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (.073 in August before a three-hit game Friday) have been particularly cold.
  • Pirates' Lack of Firepower
    Pittsburgh's offense ranks 28th in MLB with just 3.52 runs per game, and they've managed just three total runs in the first two games of this series. Tommy Pham's solo homer accounted for their only run yesterday.
  • Ballpark Factors
    Wrigley Field has played as one of the most pitcher-friendly parks this season, ranking 25th in run factor (0.898) and 26th in home run factor (0.883). The wind conditions at Wrigley could be critical today with two bullpen games.

Prediction

I’m taking the UNDER 7.5 RUNS (-105) as my top play today. Both offenses have been anemic, and this series has followed the season-long trend of low-scoring battles between these teams. The Cubs’ starting pitching has been excellent lately, with their rotation posting an MLB-best 3.04 ERA since the All-Star break. While Assad isn’t their typical starter, the Cubs’ bullpen is well-rested and has been reliable all season with a collective 3.84 ERA. Meanwhile, Mlodzinski has been much better as a reliever, and the Pirates should have their key bullpen arms available after using just three relievers yesterday. Wrigley Field’s pitcher-friendly dimensions this season add another layer of confidence to this under play. These teams have scored a combined 11 runs in the first two games, and I expect another low-scoring affair to close out the series.

Best Bets

Betting Pick: Take the Under 7.5 -105
Final Score Prediction: Cubs 4, Pirates 2

Handicapping Tools

SAVE BIG MONEY BY BETTING AT -105 REDUCED ODDS!
Quit wasting your hard earned money! Make the switch from -110 to -105 odds today
You'll be so glad that you did! Click Here!