McGreevy's 2.10 ERA and elite control face lineups that have been ice-cold recently — the total at 8 feels high when you dig into the actual scoring patterns both teams have shown.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals MLB Betting Preview
The pitching matchup tilts this toward Michael McGreevy and the Cardinals, but the betting angle gets more interesting when you examine the total. McGreevy brings a stellar 2.10 ERA and 0.88 WHIP to the mound against a Pirates offense that's been inconsistent all season, averaging just 4.9 runs per game. On the other side, Carmen Mlodzinski's 4.40 ERA suggests vulnerability, but his Statcast arsenal tells a more nuanced story about run prevention.
Yesterday's 9-6 extra-inning affair inflated expectations, but that result masks the underlying offensive struggles both teams have shown. The Pirates scored 0, 0, and 6 runs in their last three games before the explosion, while the Cardinals have managed just 4.6 runs per game this season despite playing half their games at neutral Busch Stadium. At 8 runs, the total feels inflated given the pitching matchup and both teams' season-long offensive profiles.
Game Information & Betting Odds
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
- Date: Wednesday, May 20, 2026
- Time: 7:45 PM ET
- Location: Busch Stadium
- TV: MLB.TV, Cardinals.TV
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh Pirates -102 / St. Louis Cardinals -116
- Run Line: St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (-200) / Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+164)
- Over/Under: 8 (O -105 / U -115)
- Probable Starters: Carmen Mlodzinski (3-3, 4.40) vs Michael McGreevy (3-2, 2.10)
- Team Records: Pittsburgh Pirates (24-24) vs St. Louis Cardinals (28-19)
The Pitching Matchup
From an efficiency standpoint on the mound, McGreevy has been exceptional this season. His 2.10 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over 51.1 innings represent genuine quality, backed by excellent control with just 11 walks issued. His Statcast profile shows a pitcher who works efficiently: his changeup at 86.4 mph generates a 34.4% whiff rate and holds hitters to a .280 xwOBA, while his curveball at 77.3 mph produces a 33.3% whiff rate with even better contact quality at .233 xwOBA.
The concern is McGreevy's fastball velocity sits at just 91.3 mph with a poor .462 xwOBA against, making him vulnerable when behind in counts. But here's the problem for Pirates hitters: their lineup struggles with exactly the kind of off-speed heavy approach McGreevy employs. Oneil Cruz shows a massive .506 xwOBA this season, but his 34.1% whiff rate suggests he'll chase McGreevy's breaking balls. Jordan Walker presents the biggest threat for the Cardinals with a .492 xwOBA and 8.5% barrel rate, creating a clear mismatch against Mlodzinski's contact-heavy arsenal.
Mlodzinski's 4.40 ERA looks concerning, but his Statcast data reveals a pitcher with solid stuff who's been victimized by contact quality. His split-finger at 85.5 mph generates a strong 30.1% whiff rate and limits damage with a .272 xwOBA, comprising 28.3% of his arsenal. The risk is his sinker at 94.3 mph allows hard contact with a .442 xwOBA and just a 2.4% whiff rate — Cardinals hitters like Alec Burleson with his .436 xwOBA profile as exactly the type to punish mistake sinkers.
That said, what works against this is the Pirates' recent offensive struggles cutting into any pitching edge. They've scored 3 runs or fewer in three of their last four games, and their .720 team OPS ranks among the weaker offensive units in baseball. The Cardinals haven't been much better at .716 OPS, and their 4.6 runs per game average suggests consistent offensive limitations even at home.
Prediction
This looks like a low-scoring affair based on McGreevy's season-long excellence and both teams' offensive limitations. Yesterday's 15-run explosion was an extra-inning outlier that shouldn't overshadow the underlying game flow these teams typically produce. I looked at the moneyline here, but Cardinals at -116 doesn't offer enough edge given McGreevy's advantage isn't overwhelming against a .500 Pirates team.
The caveat here is Mlodzinski's 4.40 ERA isn't dominant enough to guarantee complete run suppression, and Walker's .945 OPS creates a legitimate breakout threat. But the Cardinals' season-long scoring average combined with the Pirates' recent cold stretch suggests yesterday's offensive fireworks were the exception, not the rule. The pick is Under 8 (-115), meaning the combined score must stay under 8.
Projected Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4, Pittsburgh Pirates 3