Early money showing interest in the under despite both pitchers carrying ERAs north of 4.00.
Game Overview
The Pirates arrive in St. Louis riding some momentum after sweeping the Rockies, with Pittsburgh going 6-4 over their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are mired in a five-game home losing streak and have struggled to a 3-7 mark in their last 10 contests. Head-to-head, this NL Central rivalry has been surprisingly even this season with Pittsburgh taking 4 of the 8 meetings, including back-to-back shutout victories in their most recent series in early July. Both teams are essentially playing for pride at this point, sitting 4th and 5th in the division respectively.
Key Matchups & Analysis
- Johan Oviedo's Busch Stadium Return
Oviedo makes just his second start of 2025 after missing most of the season, and he'll be facing his former team in a ballpark where he struggled during his Cardinals tenure. He showed promise in his season debut with 9 strikeouts in 6 innings, but the small sample size makes him difficult to trust. - McGreevy's Command Advantage
Cardinals rookie Michael McGreevy doesn't overpower hitters (just 33 Ks in 57 innings), but his exceptional control (1.1 BB/9) has been his calling card. With Pittsburgh ranking 26th in team OBP (.306), McGreevy's pitch-to-contact approach could be effective if he keeps the ball in the park. - Cardinals' Struggling Offense
Despite Burleson (.285 BA) and Contreras providing some pop, St. Louis has scored just 3.1 runs per game during their current five-game home skid. Their offensive struggles are magnified by the absence of Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan, both on the IL. - Pirates' Road Woes
Pittsburgh's 18-44 road record is the second-worst in baseball, and they've been particularly bad against divisional opponents away from PNC Park. The contrast between their recent home success against Colorado and their season-long road struggles creates a compelling handicapping challenge.