Tyler Phillips carries a 1.20 ERA into loanDepot park while Miami sits at +102 on the moneyline — positive money for the home team with the demonstrably better starter. The Mets have scratched out five combined hits across the first two games of this series, yet the price still treats this like a coin flip between equals.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins MLB Betting Preview
The Mets have been outscored 6-2 across the first two games of this series, managing just five hits total — two in Friday's Game 1 (both belonging to Soto) and three in Saturday's Game 2 — while their depleted lineup keeps running out replacement-level names behind Juan Soto. Now they send Christian Scott to the mound against Tyler Phillips, who owns a 1.20 ERA over 30 innings this season. And Miami is still listed at +102 on the moneyline.
That's the core angle. You are getting the home team, the better pitcher, and a lineup advantage against a roster that has eight players on the IL — and the market is still pricing the Marlins as a slight underdog. The pitching matchup tilts this toward Miami, and the price makes it worth acting on.
The total sits at 8.5 with the under juiced at -122. Given Phillips' profile and the Mets' offensive state, you'd think the under is obvious — but I'll get to why it isn't the play here. The run line is a different conversation entirely. The projected margin of 0.3 runs doesn't support laying anything. The moneyline at +102 is where the value lives.
Game Information & Betting Odds
- Matchup: New York Mets (Away) vs Miami Marlins (Home)
- Date: Sunday, May 24, 2026
- Time: 1:40 PM ET
- Location: loanDepot park, Miami, FL (Dome)
- TV: MLB.TV, Marlins.TV, SNY
- Moneyline: New York Mets -120 / Miami Marlins +102
- Run Line: Miami Marlins +1.5 (-176) / New York Mets -1.5 (+146)
- Total: 8.5 (Over +100 / Under -122)
- Probable Starters: Christian Scott (NYM) vs Tyler Phillips (MIA)
- Records: New York Mets 22-30 (Run Diff: -17) | Miami Marlins 24-29 (Run Diff: -15)
The Pitching Matchup
This starts and largely ends with Tyler Phillips. His 1.20 ERA and 1.26 WAR in 30 innings make him one of the better-performing starters in baseball right now. He's only allowed one home run all season, and his arsenal explains why: Phillips leans on a sweeper (24.3% usage, 41.1% whiff rate, .207 xwOBA against) and a split-finger (23.8% usage, 42.3% whiff rate, .197 xwOBA against) as his primary out pitches. Both of those breaking and offspeed offerings suppress hard contact at an elite level. His 96.0 mph sinker sets up those secondary pitches and accounts for nearly 27% of his total pitch mix — it's a difficult combination to square up in a domed environment where the ball doesn't carry.
The concern with Phillips is real, though. His WHIP of 1.267 and 16 walks in 30 innings signal genuine control issues. If the Mets work counts — and a patient Soto at the top of the order will absolutely do that — Phillips can unravel quickly. His four-seam fastball sits at 96.6 mph but produces a .480 xwOBA against with a 0.0% whiff rate, meaning when he misses with his heater, hitters punish it. That's the trap door in an otherwise elite profile.
Christian Scott is a different proposition. From an efficiency standpoint on the mound, his 4.12 ERA is serviceable, and his arsenal has genuine weapons: a sweeper generating 37.1% whiff rate at .233 xwOBA and a split-finger at 46.7% whiff — though the split-finger gives up a concerning .631 xwOBA, which suggests it gets hit hard when batters make contact. His four-seamer at 95.7 mph sits 51.7% of the time and produces a .327 xwOBA — solid but not swing-and-miss stuff.
The Marlins' top of the order poses a real test for Scott. Kyle Stowers posts a .396 xwOBA with a 31.1% whiff rate — high strikeout risk but legitimate pop. Otto Lopez leads the majors with 69 hits and owns a .377 xwOBA regardless of pitcher handedness. Xavier Edwards (.350 xwOBA) and Liam Hicks (.332 xwOBA, 11 HR) round out a lineup that should be able to generate at least a few crooked numbers against a mid-rotation arm.
On the other side, Soto's .465 xwOBA and .536 xwOBA vs. right-handed pitchers makes him the one legitimate threat against Phillips. His 11.9% barrel rate and 33.5% hard-hit rate are elite — he's the one bat that can single-handedly change the game script. But the BvP sample is too small to lean on (2 PA), and behind Soto, this lineup drops off sharply. Mark Vientos has a .410 xwOBA but holds a .000 average in 3 PA against Phillips — and the rest of the order is a combination of injured replacements and below-average producers.
The park factor at loanDepot (0.95) provides a mild suppression effect, but the dome eliminates weather as a variable entirely. This looks like a low-scoring affair based on the pitching — but the score projection still lands around 4-4, not a shutout.
Prediction
The Marlins have allowed just two runs and five combined hits across the first two series games — two hits surrendered in Friday's Game 1 (Pérez's outing) and three hits in Saturday's Game 2 — a remarkable display of home pitching control that continues today with Phillips on the mound. The numbers point to a narrow Marlins win, projecting something in the 4-3 range.
The under at -122 is overpriced for what it is. If Scott has a rough outing — entirely possible given the Marlins' lineup depth — you could see enough run production to push this over 8.5. Laying -122 on the under when Scott's split-finger is posting a .631 xwOBA against doesn't make sense. Skip it.
The run line is also a non-starter. Miami +1.5 at -176 is brutal juice for a projected margin that is essentially a coin flip. The moneyline at +102 gives you the same exposure with far better return, and a 63.9% home win probability against a -120 price implies a 14.4% implied probability advantage. That's not a number to ignore.
Play the Marlins moneyline at +102. Two units.