Myers' 1.72 HR/9 rate looks manageable in a small sample — but Miami's .697 team OPS compared to New York's .658 mark tells a different story. The moneyline at +104 hasn't fully adjusted to this offensive gap.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins MLB Betting Preview
The pitching matchup tilts this toward Miami getting plus-money at home in what should be a competitive NL East battle. Tobias Myers (3.41 ERA) makes just his second start for the Mets after 29 innings of work, while Eury Perez (5.33 ERA) brings strikeout upside despite his struggles. At Miami +104, we're getting value on the better-hitting team at loanDepot park.
The Marlins' .697 team OPS significantly outpaces New York's .658 mark, and that edge becomes more pronounced with key Mets hitters on the IL. The run line at Miami +1.5 (-170) carries too much juice for a team that's performed better offensively this season, making the moneyline the sharper play.
Game Information & Betting Odds
- Matchup: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins
- Date: Friday, May 22, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET
- Location: loanDepot park
- TV: MLB.TV, Marlins.TV, WPIX
- Moneyline: New York Mets -122 / Miami Marlins +104
- Run Line: Miami Marlins +1.5 (-170) / New York Mets -1.5 (+138)
- Total: 8 (Over -104 / Under -118)
- Probable Starters: Tobias Myers (0-1, 3.41) vs Eury Perez (2-6, 5.33)
- Records: New York Mets 22-28 / Miami Marlins 22-29
The Pitching Matchup
From an efficiency standpoint on the mound, this comes down to experience versus stuff. Myers has thrown just 29 innings this season with a deceptive 3.41 ERA that masks some concerning peripherals. His 92.5 mph four-seam fastball sits at 47.9% of his arsenal but generates only a 13.6% whiff rate with a .333 xwOBA against. The split-finger at 21.3% usage is his money pitch, producing a 33.9% whiff rate and .154 xwOBA.
But here's the real concern: Myers has allowed 5 home runs in those 29 innings, translating to a troubling 1.72 HR/9 rate. That's particularly worrying when you consider how this small sample size might mask underlying issues. Is this just variance, or does Myers have a fundamental problem with the long ball? Against Miami's Xavier Edwards (.234 AVG, .682 OPS) and Otto Lopez (.248 AVG, .710 OPS), we're not necessarily looking at elite power threats, but Edwards shows a .337 xwOBA vs RHP while Lopez has been making solid contact.
Perez brings a different profile entirely. His 98.1 mph four-seam fastball commands 46.4% of his pitches with a much better 19.6% whiff rate and similar .336 xwOBA. The slider at 14.3% usage misses bats at a 39.7% clip, though it's been hit hard when contacted. His 9.97 K/9 rate gives him strikeout upside that Myers lacks.
The legitimate worry with Perez is his 5.33 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over 52.1 innings, plus he's walked 28 batters already. Here's where backing a struggling pitcher at home becomes genuinely uncomfortable. But what tilts this toward Miami is the Mets' depleted lineup. With Francisco Lindor, Jorge Polanco, and Francisco Alvarez all on the IL, New York is missing key pieces. Juan Soto (.457 xwOBA) remains dangerous and has .250 average with 1 home run and 1 strikeout in 4 career plate appearances against Perez, but the supporting cast is thin.
Prediction
This looks like a low-scoring affair based on both starters' ability to limit hard contact in spots, but Miami's superior offensive depth should prove decisive. The Marlins are getting their best hitters at the top of the order against a pitcher making just his second start, while Perez's strikeout rate can neutralize the Mets' power threats when he's locating.
The moneyline at +104 offers value in what projects as a tight game where home field advantage could be the deciding factor. Miami's offensive metrics suggest they're the better team being undervalued by the market.
Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins 5, New York Mets 4
Best Bet: Miami Marlins moneyline (+104)