Two aces posting microscopic ERAs — but the total at 8 is still pricing this like a typical Yankee Stadium game. Schlittler's 0.78 WHIP and Yesavage's zero homers allowed suggest the number hasn't caught up to the pitching reality.
Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees MLB Betting Preview
This pitching matchup screams under with Cam Schlittler (1.35 ERA, 0.78 WHIP) taking the ball for New York against Toronto's Trey Yesavage (1.40 ERA). Both starters have been dominant early in the season, and the total at 8 looks inflated given what we've seen from these arms. Schlittler has allowed just 2 home runs in 60 innings while striking out 68, and Yesavage hasn't given up a single homer through 19.1 innings of work. The Yankees sit as -178 moneyline favorites with the run line at New York -1.5 (+115), but the real value lies in backing these pitchers to keep runs off the board.
Game Information & Betting Odds
- Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
- Date: Wednesday, May 20, 2026
- Time: 7:05 PM ET
- Location: Yankee Stadium
- TV: MLB.TV, MLB Net, Prime Video, Sportsnet One
- Moneyline: Toronto Blue Jays +150 / New York Yankees -178
- Run Line: New York Yankees -1.5 (+115) / Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (-138)
- Total: 8 (O -110 / U -110)
- Probable Starters: Trey Yesavage (1-1, 1.40 ERA) vs Cam Schlittler (6-1, 1.35 ERA)
- Records: Toronto Blue Jays 21-27, New York Yankees 30-19
The Pitching Matchup
From an efficiency standpoint on the mound, both starters have been exceptional through the early portion of 2026. Cam Schlittler leads with a ridiculous 0.78 WHIP over 60 innings, allowing just 2 home runs while racking up 68 strikeouts against 11 walks. His arsenal centers around a 97.8 mph four-seam fastball that accounts for 42.8% of his pitches with a 34.3% whiff rate and .237 xwOBA against. The cutter at 94.1 mph (27.8% usage) and 97.4 mph sinker (18.4%) give him three quality offerings that keep hitters off balance.
Trey Yesavage counters with his own dominant numbers – a 1.40 ERA and the remarkable feat of zero home runs allowed in 19.1 innings. His pitch mix relies heavily on a 93.9 mph four-seam fastball (49.2% usage) with a solid 19.3% whiff rate, but the real weapon is his split-finger at 81.9 mph. That splitter generates a massive 42.6% whiff rate with just a .214 xwOBA against, making it his primary put-away pitch. The 87.8 mph slider (15.7% usage) adds another quality option with a 37.5% whiff rate.
The concern is Yankee Stadium's 1.05 park factor slightly favoring hitters, but both pitchers have handled tougher lineups effectively this season. Schlittler's four-seam velocity bump and Yesavage's splitter should neutralize the modest park boost. The Blue Jays lineup has struggled to a .243 average and .677 OPS with just 44 home runs in 48 games, while the Yankees' power (.433 SLG, 73 HRs) could break through against Yesavage's smaller sample if the command wavers.
I looked at New York Yankees -1.5 at +115, but laying runs leaves no margin for a late bullpen wobble – I'd rather take the moneyline. The Yankees moneyline at -178 exceeds my juice ceiling, making it unplayable despite the pitching edge. That leaves the total as the primary target, where elite starting pitching trumps lineup advantages.
Prediction
This looks like a low-scoring affair based on the starting pitcher quality and recent series context. Yesterday's 5-4 game and Monday's 7-6 contest both landed right around 9 runs, suggesting the current environment supports totals in this range. Both bullpens showed strength in recent outings, with the Yankees getting three scoreless innings from Hill, Bird, and Headrick yesterday. The flip side is both offenses have power – Ben Rice's .527 xwOBA and Aaron Judge's .578 mark against similar velocity could create problems for Yesavage if his command slips.
The pick is Under 8 (-110), meaning the combined score must stay under 8. The pitching matchup tilts this toward a pitcher's duel, with both starters capable of working deep into games and limiting damage. I'm projecting a final score of Yankees 5, Blue Jays 3 – enough offense to matter but controlled by quality arms on both sides.