The total has moved from 7.5 to 7.0 with 65% of public action on the under in this elite pitching matchup.
Game Overview
The Los Angeles Dodgers look to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates in Thursday's series finale. Despite their superior record and playoff positioning, the Dodgers have dropped the first two games of this series and have historically struggled at PNC Park, losing four straight series here dating back to 2022. The Dodgers' offense has been particularly concerning, getting shut out 3-0 on Wednesday night and squandering multiple scoring opportunities. Adding to their challenges, catcher Will Smith suffered a hand contusion (though X-rays were negative) and is unlikely to play today. The Pirates, meanwhile, continue to play spoiler behind their young stars, and now send their ace to the mound in what shapes up as a premier pitching matchup.
Key Matchups & Analysis
- Starting Pitching Matchup
Blake Snell (LAD) brings a 3-3 record with a 2.41 ERA and 38 strikeouts over 37.1 innings into this start. The southpaw has been effective since returning from a four-month absence due to shoulder inflammation, going 2-3 with a 2.54 ERA in his five starts back. However, his last outing against Arizona showed diminished velocity (93.5 mph, down from his 95.2 season average), which he attributed to a busy week after returning from paternity leave. Opposing him is Paul Skenes (PIT), the sensational rookie who has posted a 9-9 record with a stellar 2.05 ERA, 187 strikeouts, and just 38 walks over 167 innings. Skenes owns a 2.01 career ERA, the best of any pitcher in the live-ball era through his first 51 starts. He dominated the Dodgers earlier this season, tossing 6.1 shutout innings with 9 strikeouts in a 3-0 win on April 25. - Bullpen Comparison
The Dodgers' bullpen has been a strength, led by closer Tanner Scott (20 saves) and setup man Alex Vesia (22 holds, 4 saves). Kirby Yates, Ben Casparius, and Jack Dreyer provide solid middle-inning options, giving Los Angeles multiple reliable arms. The Pirates' bullpen is considerably thinner, with Dennis Santana (13 saves, 13 holds) serving as their primary late-inning option. This gives the Dodgers a significant advantage should the game come down to the bullpens, though with Skenes on the mound, Pittsburgh may not need many relief innings. - Offensive Trends
The Dodgers' offensive struggles continued Wednesday night as they went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position and left 11 men on base. They've scored just 4 runs in the first two games of this series. Their season numbers remain strong (5.12 runs per game, .253 team average), but they've been inconsistent since the All-Star break, going 22-29 since July 4. The Pirates' offense has been among the league's worst (3.66 runs per game, .234 team average), but they've been opportunistic in this series. Key for LA will be whether Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts can break out of their collective funk. - Ballpark Factors
PNC Park rates as a slight hitter-friendly venue with a runs factor of 1.054 (6th highest in MLB), though it suppresses home runs with a 0.893 HR factor. The park's spacious left field can neutralize right-handed power, while its shorter right field dimensions could benefit left-handed hitters like Ohtani and Freeman. Evening games at PNC Park typically see less scoring than day games, and with two elite pitchers on the mound, runs should be at a premium.