Arizona's Eduardo Rodriguez brings a 2.84 ERA into Thursday's finale against New York's struggling rotation depth. The moneyline sits at -115, but the mound differential suggests this should be priced closer to -140.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets MLB Betting Preview
After yesterday's convincing 7-2 victory over the Mets, the Diamondbacks return to Citi Field as substantial underdogs at +135. The pitching matchup tilts this toward New York behind Nolan McLean (2.61 ERA, 10.45 K/9) against Eduardo Rodriguez (0.00 ERA, 6.0 K/9). I looked at the run line here given McLean's strikeout dominance, but the projected tight score makes -1.5 too risky at this price. The moneyline gets interesting when you factor in the Mets' superior team pitching (2.90 ERA vs 3.89 ERA) and offensive numbers (.694 OPS vs .651 OPS) at home. At -163, there's value backing the better pitcher and better overall team despite yesterday's setback.
Game Information & Betting Odds
- Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets
- Date: Thursday, April 9, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET
- Location: Citi Field, New York
- TV: MLB.TV, MLB Net, DBACKS.TV, SNY
- Moneyline: Arizona +135 / New York -163
- Run Line: New York -1.5 (+129) / Arizona +1.5 (-156)
- Total: 7 (Over -112 / Under -108)
- Probable Starters: Eduardo Rodriguez vs Nolan McLean
- Records: Arizona 6-6, New York 7-5
The Pitching Matchup
The starting pitcher edge clearly favors New York, and it's not particularly close. Nolan McLean brings a 2.61 ERA and elite strikeout rate of 10.45 K/9 into this matchup — the kind of numbers that translate to consistent run prevention. His 0.87 WHIP through 10.1 innings shows excellent command, walking just four batters while striking out 12. From an efficiency standpoint on the mound, McLean profiles as someone who can work deep into games without heavy pitch counts.
Eduardo Rodriguez presents the opposite profile. While his 0.00 ERA looks impressive on paper, the underlying metrics tell a different story. His 6.0 K/9 rate is concerningly low for today's game, and that lack of swing-and-miss stuff becomes problematic against a Mets lineup that's shown patience (.324 OBP). Rodriguez has walked three in 12 innings — not terrible, but combined with the low strikeout rate, he's living dangerously against contact.
The concern is that Rodriguez's pristine ERA masks some regression risk. A pitcher with his strikeout profile typically sees more hard contact over time, and the Mets have enough thump in their lineup to capitalize. Jesse Winker (.709 OPS) and Vidal Brujan (.616 OPS) provide consistent at-bats that can work counts and create opportunities.
Here's where doubt creeps in about backing the Mets at -163: this team has scored just 55 runs in 12 games (.248 batting average) and is missing Juan Soto on the IL with a calf injury. Arizona may have struck lightning twice in this series, building confidence that could carry into tonight. The Diamondbacks' offensive explosion yesterday wasn't just about facing weak pitching — Corbin Carroll looked locked in with three extra-base hits, and that kind of momentum can be contagious throughout a lineup.
Here's the problem with yesterday's 7-2 Arizona victory — it came against David Peterson, not McLean. Peterson entered that game with a 6.14 ERA and has struggled dating back to last August. The Diamondbacks feasted on mistakes, but McLean represents a significant step up in quality. The park factor at Citi Field (0.97) slightly suppresses offense, which should benefit the pitcher with better stuff.
Prediction
This projects as a low-scoring affair based on McLean's strikeout dominance and both teams' solid bullpen depth. The Mets should get enough offense to support their pitching advantage, likely scratching across 3-4 runs against Rodriguez's contact-heavy approach. Arizona's offense showed life yesterday, but that was against inferior pitching. The bullpen situation adds another layer — both teams have quality depth, but the Mets' 2.90 team ERA suggests better overall staff quality.
Projected Final Score: New York Mets 4, Arizona Diamondbacks 3
Best Bet: New York Mets Moneyline (-163) — The pitching matchup and underlying team metrics support backing the home favorite despite yesterday's loss.