Cubs vs Yankees Free Picks & Tips | Flexen’s Breakout Meets Rodon’s Dominance

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Game Details

Chicago Cubs (55-38, 9-2 ATS in last 11) vs. New York Yankees (52-41, 5-5 ATS in last 10)

Date/Time: July 11, 2025 — 7:05 PM ET

Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York

TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Cubs +1.5 (-125) / Yankees −1.5 (+105)

Moneyline: Cubs +155 / Yankees -190

Over/Under Total: 9

Early money has pushed the total up from 8.5 despite both starting pitchers' impressive recent forms.

Game Overview

The Cubs enter this interleague series riding high after winning 8 of their last 10, including a dominant 8-1 victory over the Twins on Thursday. Chicago sits atop the NL Central, 3.5 games ahead of Milwaukee, and has been particularly strong on the road (25-22). The Yankees are coming off an emotional 6-5 extra-inning comeback win over the Mariners, where they erased a 5-0 deficit. New York has won four straight and is clinging to the second AL Wild Card spot. Historically, the Yankees have had the Cubs' number, winning 2 of 3 in their last meeting in 2024.

Key Matchups & Analysis

  • Flexen's Breakout Season vs. Yankees' Power
    Chris Flexen (5-0, 0.83 ERA) has been a revelation for the Cubs, converting from the bullpen to the rotation. His minuscule ERA is backed by an equally impressive 0.86 WHIP, though his low strikeout rate (4.7 K/9) suggests some regression is coming. He'll face a Yankees lineup that ranks 8th in MLB in home runs, presenting a significant test for his contact-heavy approach in a hitter-friendly park.
  • Rodon's Home Dominance
    Carlos Rodon (9-6, 3.30 ERA) has been exceptional at Yankee Stadium this season, posting a 5-3 record with a 3.25 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning. His high-velocity fastball and devastating slider have helped him rack up 127 strikeouts in 111.2 innings. The Cubs' offense ranks 6th in baseball in team batting average (.257) but has been vulnerable to high-velocity left-handed pitching.
  • Crow-Armstrong's Historic Season
    Pete Crow-Armstrong became just the third player in MLB history with 25+ homers and 25+ steals before the All-Star break, joining Bobby Bonds and Eric Davis in this exclusive club. After his two-homer performance against Minnesota, he'll look to take advantage of Yankee Stadium's short porch in right field, though Rodon has held left-handed batters to just a .219 average this season.
  • Bullpen Battle
    The Cubs' bullpen has been solid but not spectacular, with Daniel Palencia (10 saves) and Ryan Pressly (5 saves) handling late-inning duties. The Yankees counter with Devin Williams (13 saves) anchoring a more experienced relief corps that has been bolstered by Luke Weaver's emergence. With both starters likely to go 6+ innings, this matchup could come down to middle relief.

Prediction

While Flexen’s numbers look impressive, they’re due for regression given his low strikeout rate and the small sample size as a starter. I’m seeing value on the Yankees at home behind Rodon, whose ability to miss bats gives him a significant edge in this matchup. The Yankees’ lineup, particularly right-handed hitters like Judge and Stanton, should take advantage of Flexen’s pitch-to-contact approach in a park that ranks 15th in run factor but 5th in home run factor.

Adding to this, the Yankees have momentum after their dramatic comeback win against Seattle, while the Cubs might be due for a letdown after their dominant performance in Minnesota. Look for Rodon to limit the Cubs’ potent offense while the Yankees put up enough runs against Flexen to cover the run line.

I’m taking Yankees -1.5 (+105) as my best bet for this matchup. The value on the plus-money run line is too good to pass up with the pitching advantage the Yankees have at home. Expect Rodon’s strikeout ability to neutralize the Cubs’ contact-focused approach, while the Yankees’ power hitters capitalize on Flexen’s inevitable regression.

Best Bets

Betting Pick: Take the Yankees -1.5 +105
Final Score Prediction: Yankees 5, Cubs 2

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