Ben Brown's 2.09 ERA and 44.5% whiff-rate knuckle curve set up a suppression case at PNC Park — but the Cubs arrive on an eight-game losing streak with a bullpen gutted by five IL stints. The total is posted at 8 with the under at near-flat juice, and the matchup on paper argues for a low-scoring afternoon that the price hasn't fully committed to.
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Betting Preview
The Cubs arrive at PNC Park fresh off getting swept by Houston, their eighth straight loss completing one of the more disorienting collapses of the NL Central season. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, bounced back Sunday to avoid a Blue Jays sweep of their own. Game 1 of a new series, and the betting question is straightforward: does Ben Brown's elite start-level profile hold the total under 8 in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, or does a leaky Cubs bullpen blow the door open late?
The moneyline sits at Cubs -116 / Pirates -102 — essentially a coin-flip market. The total is 8 (Over -115 / Under -105). At -105 for the under, you're getting near-flat juice on the side supported by the better starting pitcher, the park, and two offenses with recent cold stretches. The pitching matchup tilts this toward a low-scoring game, and the under is the cleanest expression of that thesis.
Game Information & Betting Odds
- Matchup: Chicago Cubs (29-24) at Pittsburgh Pirates (27-26)
- Date/Time: Monday, May 25, 2026 | 1:35 PM ET
- Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh
- TV: MLB.TV, Marquee Sports Net
- Moneyline: Chicago Cubs -116 / Pittsburgh Pirates -102
- Run Line: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-178) / Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+146)
- Total: 8 (Over -115 / Under -105)
- Probable Starters: Ben Brown (CHC) vs. Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT)
- Cubs Record: 29-24, Last 10: 2-8
- Pirates Record: 27-26, Last 10: 4-6
The Pitching Matchup
Ben Brown is the anchor of this entire analysis. His 2.09 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 38.2 innings aren't flukes propped up by small-sample luck — his Statcast arsenal backs up every number. Brown's knuckle curve sits at 36.4% usage with a 44.5% whiff rate and .237 xwOBA against — that's a genuine swing-and-miss weapon that generates weak contact even when hitters make contact. His four-seam fastball runs 96.6 mph with a .297 xwOBA against, and his sinker adds another 96.8 mph look that holds hitters to .264 xwOBA. From an efficiency standpoint on the mound, Brown is working with three quality pitches that all suppress expected offense.
Against Pittsburgh's lineup, the matchup data is mostly favorable. Brandon Lowe (OPS .898, xwOBA .439) is the biggest threat — his .448 xwOBA vs. right-handed pitching is a real number, and his 6.9% barrel rate gives him multi-base pop. Oneil Cruz is the wild card: an xwOBA of .505 with a 9.4% barrel rate and 37.9% hard-hit rate — elite raw power — but he's also carrying a 35.7% strikeout rate and 35.0% whiff rate that Brown's knuckle curve can exploit. The BvP sample on Cruz is just 4 PA, not enough to weight heavily. Crucially, Ryan O'Hearn (OPS .827) is on the 10-Day IL with a quad injury, removing Pittsburgh's second-most productive bat from the equation entirely.
Carmen Mlodzinski is a meaningfully different profile. His 3.96 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over 50 innings reflect genuine command issues — 17 walks against 44 strikeouts is a concerning rate. His Statcast data amplifies the concern: his sinker is his second-most-used pitch at 21.6% and carries a .417 xwOBA against with only a 2.3% whiff rate — that's a pitch hitters are squaring up regularly. His four-seam fastball (.383 xwOBA against) isn't much better. The split-finger (28.2% usage, .278 xwOBA, 29.4% whiff) is his best offering and what keeps him functional.
But here's the problem for the over: the Cubs' offense is in genuine freefall. Chicago scored just 7 runs combined over the last three games against Houston — including a shutout Saturday — and went 0-for-9 with runners in scoring position in Friday's loss alone. A team OPS of .725 with a 2-8 record over the last 10 games is not a lineup that punishes command issues the way a healthy Cubs offense would. Michael Conforto's .471 xwOBA and .479 mark against right-handers makes him the most dangerous matchup against Mlodzinski, but the surrounding lineup — Hoerner at .313 xwOBA, Ballesteros at .235 batting average — isn't generating the kind of sustained pressure needed to take advantage of a 1.40 WHIP starter. PNC Park's run factor of 0.96 applies quiet but real downward pressure on scoring, pulling this game slightly below neutral.
Prediction
The numbers project this as a near-even game at roughly 8.5 combined runs — a thin margin sitting just above the posted total of 8. That projection, however, treats both rotations and bullpens as roughly functional. Neither condition fully holds here. Brown's .237 xwOBA knuckle curve and sub-1.00 WHIP give him a legitimate shot at a quality six-inning start, and O'Hearn's absence further limits Pittsburgh's ceiling. Meanwhile, the Cubs' 0-for-9 RISP showing Friday and the Saturday shutout speak to an offense that isn't capitalizing on opportunities even against hittable pitching. Apply PNC Park's 0.96 run factor on top of that, and the structural lean pulls the real-world total comfortably below the model's baseline — closer to Cubs 4, Pirates 3 than anything resembling a high-scoring afternoon.
The concern is real, though: the Cubs' bullpen is badly depleted. Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd, Hunter Harvey, Porter Hodge, and Riley Martin are all on the injured list. If Brown exits before the seventh, Chicago is leaning on a thin relief corps against a Pittsburgh lineup that does have legitimate run-scoring capability from Lowe, Cruz, and Horwitz. That bullpen risk is genuine friction — but at -105, you're getting paid to absorb it.
I considered the Cubs moneyline — Brown's individual numbers technically support it — but an 8-game losing streak, a hollowed-out bullpen, and near-even odds make this a name bet, not an edge bet. The run line at -178 for Pittsburgh +1.5 is a flat-out price rejection on what the numbers say is effectively a coin-flip game. That's not -178 territory. The under at -105 is where the value lives: Brown suppresses, PNC Park suppresses, two cold offenses fail to cover the spread of the line, and you have genuine breathing room at near-flat juice even accounting for late-inning bullpen exposure.
The Pick
Bet: Under 8 (-105) — 2 Units
Ben Brown's arsenal — highlighted by that 44.5% whiff-rate knuckle curve — gives the under its best-case scenario: a clean six innings with limited damage, a cold Cubs offense that doesn't need to produce against Mlodzinski because they've shown they can't convert with runners on anyway, and a park that quietly trims run totals. The bullpen is the risk. At -105, it's a risk worth taking.