Brady Singer has allowed 14 home runs in 46 innings this season, and Great American Ball Park's elevated park factor only narrows his margin for error further. The Cardinals carry a superior run-prevention profile and a lineup with 60 team home runs — yet the moneyline still has them at plus money.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Preview
The Cardinals come into Sunday's finale at +102 on the moneyline — that's plus money on a team that projects as a 63% win-probability favorite based on the pitching gap and lineup profiles in this game. That's the core of the betting angle here, and it doesn't require much squinting to see it. When a market gives you positive odds on what the numbers say is the favorite, you need a compelling reason to walk away. I'm not finding one.
The pitching matchup tilts this toward St. Louis in a meaningful way. Brady Singer has been a disaster in 2026 — a 6.26 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, and 14 home runs allowed in 46 innings (-0.3 WAR) against a Cardinals lineup with 60 team home runs and a .716 OPS. The counterweight is that Brycen Mautz is essentially a mystery. His Statcast arsenal data exists, but his track record at this level is thin. The moneyline at +102 accounts for that uncertainty — and still offers value.
The total sits at 9.5 (over -122 / under +100). Given Singer's extreme home run vulnerability and a park factor of 1.10 at Great American Ball Park, the over has surface logic. But Mautz's unpredictability makes it a harder commit. The moneyline is the cleaner play.
Game Information & Betting Odds
- Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals (Away) @ Cincinnati Reds (Home)
- Date/Time: Sunday, May 24, 2026 — 1:40 PM ET
- Venue: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
- TV: MLB.TV, Reds.TV, Cardinals.TV
- Moneyline: St. Louis Cardinals +102 / Cincinnati Reds -120
- Run Line: St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (-192) / Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+155)
- Total: 9.5 (Over -122 / Under +100)
- Probable Starters: Brycen Mautz (STL) vs. Brady Singer (CIN, 2-4, 6.26 ERA)
- Records: St. Louis Cardinals 29-22 (Run Diff: +1) | Cincinnati Reds 27-25 (Run Diff: -34)
- Park Factor: 1.10 (hitter-friendly)
The Pitching Matchup
Start with Brady Singer, because the numbers are impossible to ignore. He's allowing 2.74 home runs per nine innings this season — 14 HR in just 46 IP — against a Cardinals lineup that's gone deep 60 times as a team. His WHIP of 1.70 reflects a pitcher who consistently puts runners on base, and his Statcast profile explains why contact has been so damaging.
Singer leans heavily on his sinker (47.4% usage, 91.2 mph), a pitch generating a .373 xwOBA against — not a swing-and-miss offering, just a groundball attempt that hitters are barreling up. His slider (33.4% usage, 82.4 mph) carries a .323 xwOBA against and a 25.1% whiff rate — functional, but far from dominant. The most alarming number in his arsenal: his cutter (.577 xwOBA against) and his four-seam (.735 xwOBA against, 3.3% usage) — when hitters sit on those offerings, they're doing serious damage. The profile is a pitcher who survives on weak contact until he doesn't, and at Great American Ball Park with its elevated park factor, the margin for error shrinks further.
Jordan Walker is the mismatch that matters most. He carries a .482 xwOBA this season with an 8.2% barrel rate and 32.3% hard-hit rate. He homered twice against the Reds' staff yesterday — two-run shots in the opener and the nightcap — and with a .302 average and .966 OPS, he's the most dangerous bat in this game. The concern is his 30.3% whiff rate and the BvP data showing 0-for-7 with four strikeouts specifically against Singer. That's a small sample, but it's a real datapoint worth acknowledging. Alec Burleson (.439 xwOBA, 8 PA vs Singer at .429 with a HR) may actually be the better matchup to exploit.
Now for the honest caveat: Brycen Mautz is the Cardinals' starter, and there's essentially no meaningful track record to evaluate at this level. His Statcast arsenal — featuring a slider at 36.9% whiff rate and a curveball at 37.8% whiff rate — shows a swing-and-miss profile if the command holds. But the Reds' lineup has legitimate pop: Elly De La Cruz (.486 xwOBA, 9.7% barrel rate) is a genuine threat, and JJ Bleday (.467 xwOBA) has been one of the better hitters in this lineup. If Mautz can't locate his breaking ball, Cincinnati's top half of the order can do damage quickly. That's the risk embedded in this play, and I'm not pretending otherwise.
From an efficiency standpoint on the mound, the Cardinals' staff grades out meaningfully better — a 4.20 ERA and 1.370 WHIP compared to Cincinnati's 4.78 ERA and 1.468 WHIP. That gap doesn't disappear just because Singer is starting for the Reds today.
Angles I'm Rejecting
The Cardinals +1.5 run line is theoretically attractive given the pitching gap, but the juice at -192 kills the value. I'd rather take the moneyline at +102 than pay that kind of price to cover an extra run. After yesterday's loss on the over 9.5, I'm also not rushing back to that well — Mautz's unpredictability makes the total a coin flip at best, and -122 on the over isn't a number I want to chase without a clearer read on how he performs.
Prediction
The game script here runs through Singer's inability to suppress the Cardinals' power. St. Louis has the superior lineup profile on paper (.716 OPS vs .703), the superior run prevention, and is catching a pitcher who's been one of the most hittable starters in baseball this season. The Mautz wildcard is real — I've said it multiple times and I mean it — but +102 on the moneyline prices in that uncertainty and still sits on the right side of the value line. The Cardinals win this series finale.
Bet: St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline (+102) — 2 Units