St. Louis Cardinals (51-47, 27-23 ATS in last 50) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (48-50, 24-26 ATS in last 50)
Date/Time: July 19, 2025 — 7:15 PM ET
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
TV: FOX
Moneyline: STL -106 / ARI -110
Run Line: STL +1.5 (-188) / ARI −1.5 (+155)
Over/Under Total: 8.5 runs
The public is slightly favoring the home team after Arizona's convincing 7-3 win in the series opener.
Game Overview
The Cardinals and Diamondbacks square off in the second game of their three-game series after Arizona took the opener 7-3 behind a dominant pitching performance from Brandon Pfaadt. St. Louis enters at 51-47 overall, going 4-6 in their last 10 games, while the Diamondbacks (48-50) are looking to gain momentum after Friday's victory. These teams have split their previous 10 meetings, with Arizona holding a slight 6-4 edge, but the Cardinals took 3 of 4 when they met in St. Louis back in May. Tonight's contest is crucial for both clubs as they assess their trade deadline strategies with just over two weeks remaining.
Key Matchups & Analysis
- Gray vs. Nelson: Veteran Experience vs. Emerging Talent
Cardinals starter Sonny Gray (9-3, 3.50 ERA) brings playoff pedigree and excellent command (19 BB, 118 K) to the mound, while Arizona counters with Ryne Nelson (5-2, 3.68 ERA), who's been remarkably consistent at home with a 1.07 WHIP. Gray faced Arizona earlier this season, allowing 3 runs over 6 innings in a Cardinals victory. - Marte's Absence Creates Opportunity
All-Star Ketel Marte is on the restricted list following a home burglary during the All-Star break, creating a significant hole in Arizona's lineup. This opens the door for St. Louis to exploit a weakened Diamondbacks batting order that relies heavily on Marte's production. - Bullpen Battle Favors Cardinals
St. Louis has a clear advantage in the late innings with closer Ryan Helsley (19 saves) anchoring a more reliable relief corps. Arizona's bullpen has been in flux all season with five different relievers recording saves, led by Shelby Miller (10 saves) who's been inconsistent at best. - Chase Field's Neutral Impact
Despite its reputation as a hitter's park, Chase Field has played surprisingly neutral this season with park factors of 0.998 for runs and just 0.772 for home runs, ranking 14th and 28th respectively among MLB venues. This should benefit Gray's ground ball approach while potentially limiting Arizona's power potential.
Betting Pick & Rationale
I'm backing the Cardinals on the moneyline at -106 tonight. This price offers excellent value with Sonny Gray on the mound, who's been one of the most consistent starters in the National League. While Arizona looked sharp in the opener, they're significantly weakened without Ketel Marte in the lineup. Gray's command advantage (1.08 WHIP vs. Nelson's 1.07) essentially neutralizes any home field edge, and his postseason experience gives him the mental edge in what should be a tightly contested game. The Cardinals' superior bullpen should also be a factor in the later innings, particularly with Ryan Helsley available to close things out. St. Louis has gone 10-8 ATS when Gray starts this season, and they've performed well as slight road underdogs, going 4-2 in Gray's starts when not favored. Look for the veteran to silence Arizona's bats and help the Cardinals even this series.
Predicted Final Score: Cardinals 5, Diamondbacks 3