Public money heavily favoring the Cubs as home favorites with 64% of bettors backing Chicago to continue their dominance in this rivalry.
Game Overview
The Chicago Cubs (90-70) host the St. Louis Cardinals (78-82) on Saturday afternoon as these longtime NL Central rivals meet for their 10th matchup of the 2025 season. The Cubs have dominated the season series 6-3, including a decisive 12-1 victory yesterday. Chicago is playing for playoff positioning while St. Louis is simply trying to finish their disappointing season on a positive note. Recent trends heavily favor the Cubs at Wrigley Field, where they've turned this rivalry in their favor with four straight home wins against the Cardinals dating back to June.
Key Matchups & Analysis
- Starting Pitching Matchup
The Cubs send veteran Jameson Taillon (10-7, 3.78 ERA) to the mound against Cardinals' right-hander Michael McGreevy (8-3, 4.35 ERA). Taillon has been remarkably consistent for Chicago, posting a solid 1.07 WHIP with excellent control (25 BB in 123.2 innings). His command has been particularly sharp at Wrigley, where he's allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his last eight home starts. McGreevy has been a pleasant surprise for St. Louis this season, but his road numbers are concerning. The young righty has been more hittable away from Busch Stadium, with his ERA jumping nearly a full run on the road. - Bullpen Comparison
The Cubs hold a decisive advantage in the bullpen department with closer Daniel Palencia (22 saves) anchoring a relief corps that's been one of the NL's best over the past month. Chicago's bullpen features multiple high-leverage arms including Brad Keller (25 holds) and Caleb Thielbar (24 holds), giving manager Craig Counsell plenty of matchup options in the late innings. St. Louis's bullpen has been inconsistent all season, with JoJo Romero (8 saves, 24 holds) as their most reliable arm. The Cardinals' relievers have struggled with inherited runners, allowing 38% to score compared to Chicago's 29% mark. - Offensive Trends
Chicago's offense has been significantly more productive, averaging 4.90 runs per game compared to St. Louis's 4.29. The power differential is particularly stark, with the Cubs averaging 1.36 home runs per game while the Cardinals manage just 0.91. Kyle Tucker (.270/.382/.471) and Nico Hoerner (.300/.348/.398) have been Chicago's most consistent bats, while Seiya Suzuki has caught fire recently with 3 homers in his last five games. St. Louis counters with Alec Burleson (.292/.345/.462) and Brendan Donovan (.287/.353/.422), but lacks the consistent power threats that Chicago possesses throughout their lineup. - Ballpark Factors
Wrigley Field has actually played as a pitcher's park this season, ranking 25th in run factor (0.898) and 26th in home run factor (0.883). This could benefit Taillon, who has thrived in the friendly confines. However, today's forecast calls for 10-12 mph winds blowing out to left field, which could neutralize some of Wrigley's pitcher-friendly tendencies. The daytime start typically favors hitters at Wrigley as well, something to consider when evaluating the total.
What seals the deal for me is Chicago's offensive firepower against right-handed pitching. The Cubs have posted an .813 OPS against righties over the past month, while McGreevy's road splits (4.87 ERA away from Busch Stadium) suggest he'll have trouble navigating this potent lineup. With playoff positioning on the line, I expect the Cubs to come out aggressive early and build a lead that their superior bullpen can protect.
The value on the run line at plus money is simply too good to pass up given how one-sided these matchups have been recently. Six of Chicago's last eight wins against St. Louis have come by multiple runs, including yesterday's 11-run blowout. At +115, we're getting excellent value on a scenario that has consistently played out in this rivalry.