Jacob Misiorowski's 1.89 ERA and 13.9 K/9 dominate the pitching matchup, but the combined run projection of 8.6 sits above the 7.5 total — the market and the models are pointing in different directions. The case for the under hinges entirely on Misiorowski keeping a strikeout-prone Cardinals lineup well below its season average, and on Milwaukee's .361 slugging offense failing to do damage against a hittable Liberatore.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers MLB Betting Preview
The total sits at 7.5 (Under -105), and the market's pricing tells part of the story before a pitch is thrown. This isn't a game where the books are offering free money — they've already shaded this toward a pitcher's duel. But the pitching matchup tilts this toward the under when you look at who's actually taking the ball for Milwaukee. Jacob Misiorowski against a Cardinals offense that profiles as a high-strikeout, middling-power group is the clearest angle on the board.
Milwaukee's moneyline at -220 is a non-starter. That price is well beyond any reasonable juice ceiling, and the edge there doesn't translate into value. The Brewers -1.5 at -102 is worth a glance, but I'd rather not need the two-run cushion to cash — the Brewers' offense carries a slugging percentage of just .361, and counting on a multi-run margin against even a hittable Liberatore is asking too much. The total is where the betting angle gets interesting.
Game Information & Betting Odds
- Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals (29-22) @ Milwaukee Brewers (30-20)
- Date: Monday, May 25, 2026
- Time: 2:10 PM ET
- Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee (Dome)
- TV: MLB.TV, Brewers.TV, Cardinals.TV
- Moneyline: Cardinals +184 / Brewers -220
- Run Line: Brewers -1.5 (-102) / Cardinals +1.5 (-118)
- Total: 7.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)
- Probable Starters: Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs Jacob Misiorowski (MIL)
- Park Factor: 1.00 (neutral — no run inflation)
The Pitching Matchup
Start with Misiorowski, because he's the reason this game looks the way it does. His numbers this season aren't just good — they're legitimately elite: 1.89 ERA, 0.877 WHIP, 13.9 K/9 across 57 innings, with only 4 home runs allowed all year. That strikeout rate puts him in the top 1% of starters in baseball, and the Statcast data backs up the raw numbers.
His four-seam fastball — thrown 58.6% of the time at 99.4 mph — generates a 38.5% whiff rate and holds opposing hitters to a .276 xwOBA. That's not just a velocity story; it's a miss-bat weapon. He layers in a slider that sits at 94.3 mph — nearly matching Liberatore's entire fastball in terms of velocity — and that slider holds hitters to a .187 xwOBA against. He also features a curveball that produces a 41.8% whiff rate with a .231 xwOBA. Hitters can't sit on any one pitch, and the Cardinals' lineup — which has posted 412 strikeouts on the season — is exactly the kind of group Misiorowski eats alive.
Jordan Walker is the legitimate threat here. He's hitting .302 with a .966 OPS and 15 home runs, and his xwOBA sits at .490 — among the highest in the Cardinals lineup. His hard-hit rate (32.1%) and barrel rate (8.4%) mean one mistake from Misiorowski could change the game. But Walker also carries a 27.6% strikeout rate with a 29.9% whiff rate, and with only 2 plate appearances against Misiorowski on record, there's no established track record to lean on.
On the other side, Matthew Liberatore is a real liability. His 4.70 ERA and 1.548 WHIP in 51.2 innings this season paint a picture of a starter who gives up traffic. His four-seam fastball sits at 94.3 mph but generates only a 10.9% whiff rate — hitters are making consistent contact. The slider (36.9% whiff) and curveball (37.8% whiff) are his out pitches, but both carry elevated xwOBA values when left in the zone. Brice Turang (.447 xwOBA overall, .494 xwOBA vs. right-handed pitching) is a real problem at the top of Milwaukee's order — though his 0-for-10 BvP sample against Liberatore creates some noise.
The concern with Liberatore is volume. A 1.548 WHIP means Milwaukee could see runners early and often. But here's the problem — Milwaukee's offense carries a slugging percentage of just .361, which is among the lower figures in the league. They create runs through contact and baserunning (54 stolen bases), not power. Against a starter who does give up runs, they may not push the total as high as the underlying ERA suggests. For additional context, the Brewers just dropped a 5-1 decision to the Dodgers on Sunday — not a high-offense environment on either side.
The park factor at American Family Field is neutral at 1.00 — no environmental inflation to worry about.
Prediction
The game script here likely runs as follows: Misiorowski dominates the first 5-6 innings, limiting St. Louis to 1-2 runs. Milwaukee scores against Liberatore — probably 3-4 runs before he's pulled — but the low-slugging Brewers offense doesn't blow the game open. Milwaukee's strong bullpen (team ERA 3.31, WHIP 1.213) closes it out without drama.
But the tension in this call deserves honest acknowledgment. The numbers project a combined 8.6 runs (Milwaukee 4.8, St. Louis 3.8), which technically sits over the 7.5 total. That's the single biggest risk here — the underlying run projections disagree with the under recommendation. The argument for the under is concentrated on Misiorowski suppressing the Cardinals well below their season average, and on Milwaukee's low-slugging offense failing to capitalize on whatever traffic Liberatore allows. If Misiorowski is even close to his season-long form, the Cardinals side of this total should come in well under their projected 3.8. That's the bet.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-105) — 2 Units