Braves vs Cubs Free Picks & Tips | Left-Handed Pitching Duel at Wrigley Field

Braves vs Cubs Free Picks & Tips | Left-Handed Pitching Duel at Wrigley Field

Game Details

Atlanta Braves (62-76, 29-43 ATS in last 72) vs. Chicago Cubs (79-59, 62-72 ATS in last 134)

Date/Time: September 2, 2025 — 7:40 PM ET

Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois

TV: Fox Sports South

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Atlanta +1.5 (-142) / Chicago -1.5 (+118)

Moneyline: Atlanta +144 / Chicago -172

Over/Under Total: 8.0 runs

The public is slightly favoring Chicago in this matchup, with about 67% of tickets coming in on the home favorite Cubs.

Game Overview

The Chicago Cubs continue their playoff push when they host the Atlanta Braves for the second game of their series at Wrigley Field. Chicago took the opener in dramatic fashion with a 7-6 extra-inning victory after erasing a 6-1 deficit. The Cubs have won six of their last ten games to maintain a firm grip on a wild card position, while Atlanta has struggled to a 4-6 record over that same stretch. The Cubs currently sit 5.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central but are comfortably positioned in the wild card race at 5 games ahead of the first team out. Atlanta, meanwhile, has endured a disappointing season at 62-76, sitting 18 games behind the division-leading Phillies.

Key Matchups & Analysis

  • Starting Pitching Matchup
    This game features a battle of left-handers with Atlanta sending Joey Wentz (2-1, 4.15 ERA) to face Chicago's Shota Imanaga (8-6, 3.08 ERA). Wentz has been serviceable but unspectacular in limited action this season, allowing 12 earned runs in 26 innings with a 22:11 K:BB ratio and a concerning 1.38 WHIP. Imanaga has been much more impressive for the Cubs, striking out 95 batters in 117 innings with a stellar 0.93 WHIP. His control has been exceptional, walking just 22 batters all season. The Cubs clearly have the advantage with their Japanese import who has adjusted well to MLB in his first season.
  • Bullpen Comparison
    The Cubs hold a significant edge in the bullpen department, featuring one of the more reliable relief corps in the National League. Brad Keller (22 holds) and Caleb Thielbar (18 holds) have been excellent setup men, while closer Daniel Palencia has converted 21 saves. The Braves' bullpen showed their vulnerability in Monday's opener, with Pierce Johnson blowing a save opportunity by surrendering a game-tying two-run homer in the eighth inning. Overall, Atlanta's relievers have been inconsistent this season, with closer Raisel Iglesias (23 saves) being one of their few reliable options.
  • Offensive Trends
    Chicago's offense has been clicking lately, showing impressive resilience by overcoming a five-run deficit in yesterday's victory. Pete Crow-Armstrong (.250, 28 HR, 83 RBI) continues his breakout season while providing spectacular defense in center field. Kyle Tucker, despite going hitless yesterday, remains a dangerous presence in the lineup with a .267 average and excellent .380 OBP. For Atlanta, Michael Harris II has been red hot since the All-Star break, batting .335 with 11 homers and 33 RBIs in that span. Matt Olson (.269, team-leading .365 OBP) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (.284) give the Braves legitimate star power, but the team has struggled to convert that talent into consistent run production.
  • Ballpark Factors
    Wrigley Field ranks as one of the more pitcher-friendly venues in baseball this season, with park factors of 0.898 for runs (25th) and 0.883 for home runs (24th). These numbers suggest a modest advantage for pitchers, especially compared to more hitter-friendly environments. The wind conditions at Wrigley are always a factor, but even with normal conditions, the ballpark has suppressed offense in 2025. This environment should benefit both left-handed starters, particularly the more polished Imanaga.

Prediction

I’m backing the Chicago Cubs on the moneyline (-172) in this matchup. While the price is steep, there are multiple factors pointing toward a Cubs victory. First, the pitching matchup heavily favors Chicago with Imanaga’s superior command and consistency giving him a significant edge over Wentz. The Japanese lefty’s 0.93 WHIP is elite, while Wentz has struggled with control issues as evidenced by his 1.38 WHIP.

The Cubs also have momentum after their impressive comeback win yesterday, and their bullpen is better positioned to close things out in the late innings. Atlanta’s relief corps showed vulnerability in the series opener, and I expect Chicago’s deep lineup to capitalize on any opportunities against the Braves’ pitching staff.

Additionally, the Cubs have been excellent at home with a 42-25 record at Wrigley Field this season. They’re playing meaningful games with playoff implications, while Atlanta is simply playing out the string on a disappointing campaign. The motivation factor shouldn’t be underestimated as we enter September baseball.

The price is admittedly high at -172, but I see Chicago as having at least a 65% chance to win this game, making this a value play despite the juice. I wouldn’t recommend playing the run line here given Wrigley Field’s pitcher-friendly tendencies and the possibility of a lower-scoring affair with two capable lefties on the mound.

Best Bets

Betting Pick: Take the Cubs -172
Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 5, Atlanta Braves 2

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