Blue Jays vs Orioles Free Picks & Tips | Struggling Pitchers Square Off in AL East Showdown

Blue Jays vs Orioles Free Picks & Tips | Struggling Pitchers Square Off in AL East Showdown

Game Details

Toronto Blue Jays (63-44, 37-21 in last 58) vs. Baltimore Orioles (48-58, 25-35 in last 60)

Date/Time: July 29, 2025 — 12:35 PM ET

Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland

TV: Sportsnet, MASN, MLBN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Blue Jays +1.5 (-125) / Orioles −1.5 (+105)

Moneyline: Blue Jays +116 / Orioles -136

Over/Under Total: 10.0 runs

Public money backing the home Orioles despite Toronto owning MLB's best record.

Game Overview

The first-place Blue Jays look to bounce back after Monday's 11-4 drubbing as they face the last-place Orioles in a doubleheader on Tuesday. Toronto has dropped two straight after winning 8 of 9, while Baltimore has found its offensive rhythm, scoring 34 runs in their last three wins. The Orioles received a boost with Adley Rutschman's return from the IL on Monday (3-for-5 with 2 doubles), while the Blue Jays are monitoring George Springer after he was hit in the head by a pitch in Monday's game.

Key Matchups & Analysis

  • Pitching Mismatch
    This matchup features two struggling southpaws in Toronto's Easton Lucas (3-2, 5.82 ERA) against Baltimore's Charlie Morton (6-8, 5.48 ERA). Morton has been more effective recently, posting a 3.53 ERA since May 10th after a disastrous start to the season.
  • Blue Jays' Offensive Consistency
    Toronto has scored 4+ runs in 11 consecutive games and owns MLB's highest team batting average, creating consistent pressure even when their pitching falters.
  • Camden Yards Factor
    Oriole Park has played as a pitcher-friendly venue this season with a 0.938 park factor for runs (22nd in MLB) and 0.908 for home runs, which could benefit both struggling starters.
  • Rutschman's Return Impact
    The Orioles catcher provided an immediate spark in his return from a six-week absence, and his presence behind the plate should help navigate Morton through the dangerous Toronto lineup.

Prediction

I’m taking the OVER 10 RUNS (-110) as my best bet in the early game. Despite Camden Yards playing as a pitcher-friendly park this season, this matchup features two vulnerable starters with ERAs north of 5.00. Easton Lucas has allowed 10 walks in just 21.2 innings with a concerning 1.43 WHIP, while Morton continues to struggle with consistency. The Blue Jays boast MLB’s top batting average and have scored 4+ runs in 11 straight games, while Baltimore’s offense has exploded for 34 runs in their last three games. With both bullpens potentially taxed in a doubleheader situation, we should see plenty of scoring opportunities throughout the game. This total opened at 9.5 and has been bet up for good reason.

Best Bets

Betting Pick: Take the Over 10
Final Score Prediction: Orioles 7, Blue Jays 6

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