Oakland Athletics (42-58, 6-4 ATS in last 10) vs. Cleveland Guardians (47-50, 7-3 ATS in last 10)
Date/Time: July 20, 2025 — 1:40 PM ET
Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
TV: NBCS-CA, Bally Sports Great Lakes
Moneyline: OAK +116 / CLE -136
Run Line: OAK +1.5 (-164) / CLE -1.5 (+136)
Over/Under Total: 8 runs
Sharp money has pushed this total down slightly with 60% of bets on the under.
Game Overview
The Athletics rebounded with an impressive 8-2 victory on Saturday after dropping the series opener 8-6 to Cleveland on Friday. Oakland has been showing signs of life lately, going 5-5 in their last 10 despite their overall struggles this season. The Guardians, meanwhile, are 7-3 in their last 10 but remain just below .500 overall at 47-50. Cleveland has dominated the head-to-head matchup recently, winning 20 of the last 25 meetings between these teams, but Oakland's bats showed serious pop in their Saturday win with three late homers from Langeliers, Wilson, and Kurtz.
Key Matchups & Analysis
- Jeffrey Springs vs. Guardians' Lineup
Springs (8-6, 3.93 ERA) has been a reliable arm for Oakland this season, posting a solid 1.18 WHIP with 86 strikeouts over 110 innings. However, he's struggled with consistency on the road, where his ERA climbs to 4.65. He'll need to be particularly careful with José Ramírez, who's riding a hot streak with a .313 average, 2 HR and 7 RBIs in his last five games. - Gavin Williams' Command Issues
Williams (5-4, 3.70 ERA) has shown flashes of brilliance this season but continues to battle control problems. His 1.43 WHIP and 57 walks in 97.1 innings are concerning metrics that the patient Athletics hitters should be able to exploit. Jacob Wilson (.327 BA) and Nick Kurtz (leading all rookies with 18 HR) could feast if Williams misses his spots. - Bullpen Advantage: Cleveland
The Guardians' relief corps has been a strength all season, anchored by closer Emmanuel Clase (21 saves) and setup men Hunter Gaddis (19 holds) and Cade Smith (18 holds). Oakland's bullpen, meanwhile, lacks established roles and has been inconsistent, which could prove decisive if this becomes a close late-inning battle. - Park Factor Considerations
Progressive Field plays relatively neutral for run scoring (0.972 park factor) but suppresses home runs slightly (0.924). This could benefit Williams, who has given up his share of hard contact this season. The forecast calls for mild temperatures around 75°F with light winds, creating conditions that slightly favor pitchers.
Betting Pick & Rationale
I'm backing the Oakland Athletics on the moneyline (+116) in Sunday's rubber match. While Cleveland has dominated this matchup historically, I see several factors pointing toward an Oakland upset today. Williams' command issues (57 BB in 97.1 IP) should create opportunities for an Athletics lineup that showed its power potential with three homers yesterday. Springs has been Oakland's most consistent starter this season, and his veteran savvy should help navigate a Cleveland lineup that's missing Steven Kwan (wrist injury).
The value on Oakland at +116 is simply too good to pass up. The Guardians are being overvalued based on their recent 7-3 stretch, but they remain a sub-.500 team overall. With Oakland's young sluggers Jacob Wilson (.327 BA) and Nick Kurtz (18 HR) swinging hot bats, I expect the Athletics to take advantage of Williams' control problems and secure the series victory.
Predicted Final Score: Athletics 5, Guardians 3