Oakland Athletics (41-57, 21-26 on road, 36-32 ATS in last 68) vs. Cleveland Guardians (46-49, 20-23 at home, 32-27 ATS in last 59)
Date/Time: July 18, 2025 — 7:10 PM ET
Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
TV: NBCS-CA, CLEG
Moneyline: Athletics +114 / Guardians -134
Run Line: Athletics +1.5 (-182) / Guardians −1.5 (+150)
Over/Under Total: 8.5 runs
Public money favoring the under despite Sears' road struggles and Rooker's hot bat.
Game Overview
The Athletics enter the second half with newfound momentum after Brent Rooker's breakout All-Star Game performance where he belted a three-run homer and won the swing-off. Oakland has quietly gone 18-17 in their last 35 games behind their young core of Rooker, Wilson and Kurtz. Meanwhile, Cleveland has shown recent signs of life, going 6-1 on their last road trip, but they've struggled at Progressive Field with a seven-game home losing streak they're desperate to snap. The Guardians took two of three when these teams met in Oakland back in June.
Key Matchups & Analysis
- Starting Pitching: JP Sears vs. Slade Cecconi
Sears (7-7, 4.79 ERA) has been Oakland's most reliable starter recently, going 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA in his last three outings. However, his career numbers against Cleveland are concerning (0-3, 5.48 ERA). Cecconi (4-4, 3.44 ERA) has been outstanding lately, going 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA in his last five starts and has yet to allow more than three runs during that stretch. - Brent Rooker's Momentum
Rooker enters on a six-game hitting streak and is batting .351 with four doubles and three homers over his last 10 games. His confidence should be soaring after his All-Star heroics, but Progressive Field's 0.924 HR factor could slightly suppress his power. - Cleveland's Bullpen Advantage
Emmanuel Clase (20 saves) anchors a Cleveland bullpen that's been steadier than Oakland's this season. With Hunter Gaddis (19 holds) and Cade Smith (18 holds) forming a reliable bridge, the Guardians hold a significant late-game advantage if it's close after six innings. - Home Field Factor
Progressive Field plays as a slight pitcher's park (0.972 runs factor), which benefits Cecconi and could neutralize some of Oakland's recent offensive improvements. The Guardians desperately need to reverse their home struggles to make a second-half playoff push.
Betting Pick & Rationale
I'm taking the GUARDIANS MONEYLINE (-134) as my best bet tonight. While Rooker's All-Star performance is getting the headlines, Cleveland's Cecconi has been quietly dominant over his last five starts. His 3-1 record and 2.73 ERA during that stretch shows he's hitting his stride, and he matches up well against an Athletics lineup that still struggles on the road (21-26). Sears has improved recently, but his career 5.48 ERA against Cleveland is a major red flag.
What ultimately swings this in Cleveland's favor is their recent 6-1 road trip momentum combined with the easiest remaining schedule in baseball coming out of the break. The Guardians understand this homestand is their opportunity to make a playoff push, and manager Stephen Vogt will have his team ready after the break. Cleveland's bullpen depth provides the final edge in what should be a competitive game.
Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 5, Oakland Athletics 3