The total has ticked up to 8.5 with 58% of early money coming in on the over despite Chase Field's reputation as a more pitcher-friendly venue.
Game Overview
The Houston Astros (57-42) bring their AL West-leading record to Phoenix where they'll face a Diamondbacks team (50-50) fresh off a dominant three-game sweep of the Cardinals. Arizona has scored 22 runs over their last three games while holding St. Louis to just 7 runs total. Houston is coming off a disappointing series loss in Seattle where they dropped 2 of 3 despite exploding for 11 runs in the finale. The Astros have gone 18-12 as underdogs this season, showing resilience despite a rash of injuries to key players. Arizona's Zac Gallen has struggled mightily in 2025 with a 5.40 ERA, creating a potential vulnerability despite the Diamondbacks being installed as -142 favorites.
Key Matchups & Analysis
- Zac Gallen's Home Struggles
Arizona's ace has been anything but in 2025, posting a 7-10 record with a bloated 5.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP across 115 innings. At Chase Field, he's been even worse with a 6.13 ERA and 10 home runs allowed in just 54.1 innings. The Astros' disciplined approach (6th fewest strikeouts in MLB) could expose Gallen's command issues. - Astros' Bullpen Advantage
Houston boasts one of baseball's most dominant late-inning combinations with Josh Hader (25 saves, 2.40 ERA) and Bryan Abreu (23 holds, 2.88 ERA). Arizona's bullpen has been inconsistent with no clear closer, splitting saves between five different relievers. This gives Houston a significant edge in close games. - Eugenio Suárez's Red-Hot Bat
Arizona's third baseman has been on an absolute tear, launching 6 home runs in his last 5 games. He leads the NL with 35 homers and MLB with 85 RBIs. However, lefties have given him trouble (.235 BA vs LHP), which could benefit Astros rookie southpaw Colton Gordon. - Christian Walker's Return
The former Diamondbacks first baseman returns to Chase Field for the first time since signing with Houston. Walker has 13 homers this season and will be motivated against his former team. His knowledge of Gallen's tendencies from years of intrasquad matchups could prove valuable.