Date: November 6, 2024 | Time: 7:00 PM ET | Location: Waldo Stadium
Game Overview
This Mid-American Conference (MAC) matchup features the Western Michigan Broncos and the Northern Illinois Huskies in what promises to be a competitive game. Western Michigan (5-3, 1st in MAC) has been on a four-game winning streak, improving significantly since their 1-3 season start. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois (4-4, 9th in MAC) is looking to regain form after a hot start but has struggled over the past six games.
Current Odds
- Spread: NIU -1.5, WMU +1.5
- Total: 52.5 (O -110 / U -110)
- Moneyline: NIU -125, WMU +105
Western Michigan Broncos (5-3, 1st MAC)
After starting the season with three losses against tough FBS teams (Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Marshall), the Broncos have turned things around, winning four straight games and remaining undefeated in MAC play. Their recent success can be attributed in part to the return of running back Jalen Buckley, who missed three games. With Buckley back, the Broncos now have a versatile, three-pronged rushing attack that has been challenging for many MAC teams.
However, they will face a strong NIU rush defense, which ranks 24th nationally, allowing just 110.6 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry. WMU’s ability to gain yards on the ground could be tested here, requiring them to find alternative offensive solutions to maintain their winning momentum.
Northern Illinois Huskies (4-4, 9th MAC)
The Huskies opened the season impressively, including a shocking win over Notre Dame and a blowout of FCS opponent Western Illinois. However, since then, they have struggled, going 2-4 over their last six games, with their only wins against UMass and Bowling Green. Offensively, Northern Illinois relies on a balanced attack but is stronger on the ground. They rank 18th in rushing yards per game (209.0), setting up a potentially competitive battle with WMU’s defensive line.
NIU’s pass defense is a particular strength, allowing only 164.8 passing yards per game (11th nationally). Their ability to stifle the pass could limit WMU’s options, especially if the Broncos struggle to establish their ground game against NIU’s solid front seven.
Key Matchup Stats
- NIU's Rush Defense: Ranking 24th in rush yards allowed per game (110.6) and 19th in yards per carry (3.3), NIU’s defensive line presents a significant challenge to WMU’s improved ground attack, led by Jalen Buckley. NIU’s ability to hold down WMU’s rushing attack could be pivotal.
- WMU's Offense vs NIU’s Pass Defense: NIU’s secondary ranks 11th in passing yards allowed and 26th in completion percentage allowed. WMU may struggle to move the ball through the air, especially if forced into passing situations.
- Fourth-Quarter Performance: WMU has been strong late, averaging 7.5 points in the fourth quarter (57th nationally). NIU, on the other hand, allows 9.6 points in the fourth quarter (121st), which could give WMU an edge if the game is close heading into the final period.
Betting Trends
- Against the Spread (ATS): WMU is 4-4 ATS, with a perfect 3-0 record at home. NIU is 4-3-1 ATS overall but has been inconsistent, especially on the road.
- Over/Under: WMU games have hit the over in 6 of 8 contests this season, while NIU games are 3-4-1 O/U, indicating a slight tendency toward higher scores.
Betting Recommendation
Recommended Bet: WMU +1.5. Western Michigan’s home advantage, recent winning streak, and fourth-quarter scoring potential give them an edge. However, NIU’s strong defense may make this a lower-scoring affair, so leaning towards the under on the 52.5 total could be worth considering, given both teams’ defensive strengths.
Pick: Take the Under 52.5