Virginia (4-3) is set to host North Carolina (3-4) at Scott Stadium on October 26, 2024, at 12:00 PM ET. Virginia is a 4.5-point favorite as they look to continue their climb in the Atlantic Coast standings. North Carolina, coming off a series of tough losses, has struggled both against the spread (0-6-1) and on the road. Below, we outline why Virginia should cover the spread in this critical ACC showdown.
Game Details
- Teams: Virginia Cavaliers vs North Carolina Tar Heels
- Week: Week 9
- Date: October 26, 2024
- Time: 12:00 PM ET
- Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Virginia
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Virginia -4.5 (-105) | North Carolina +4.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Virginia -185 | North Carolina +150
Total (Over/Under): 59.5 (O -105 | U -115)
Five Reasons Why Virginia Should Win and Cover the Spread
1. North Carolina’s Struggles Against the Spread
North Carolina has been one of the worst teams in the country against the spread this season, going 0-6-1 ATS. They’ve consistently failed to cover in games, even as underdogs, making Virginia’s -4.5 line look favorable. Virginia, on the other hand, is 5-1-1 ATS this season, showing they can meet expectations and perform well against the spread.
2. Virginia’s Solid Defense
Virginia’s defense is giving up 25.7 points per game, which ranks them ahead of North Carolina in defensive efficiency. They’ve been particularly good at containing the run, allowing only 133.4 rushing yards per game. With North Carolina leaning heavily on the run game (averaging 198.7 rushing yards), Virginia’s ability to stop the run could be a key factor in controlling this matchup.
3. North Carolina’s Inconsistent Offense
North Carolina’s offense has been inconsistent, especially in the passing game. Their starting quarterback has struggled with efficiency, completing just 56.6% of his passes, and they rank 117th nationally in completion percentage. Virginia’s defense should be able to capitalize on this inconsistency, potentially forcing turnovers or limiting big plays.
4. Home Field Advantage
Virginia has performed well at home this season, going 2-1 at Scott Stadium. North Carolina has struggled on the road, with a 1-1 record in away games and an overall poor track record. Home field advantage should give Virginia the boost they need to cover the spread, especially with North Carolina’s difficulties away from Chapel Hill.
5. Virginia’s Special Teams Edge
Virginia’s special teams have been a significant factor this season, particularly in field goal accuracy where they’ve made 12 out of 14 attempts. They also excel in kickoff returns, averaging 22.8 yards per return, ranked 37th nationally. Special teams can provide valuable field position, and in a game where points could be at a premium, this edge could help Virginia cover the spread.
With their defensive strength, home field advantage, and North Carolina’s struggles against the spread, Virginia looks poised to win and cover the -4.5 point spread in this ACC showdown.
Pick: Take Virginia -4.5