Date: October 19, 2024
Location: Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium, Evanston, IL
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Betting Odds: Wisconsin -7, O/U 41.5, Moneyline: Wisconsin -275, Northwestern +225
Lead-In
Wisconsin (4-2) visits Northwestern (3-3) for a key Big Ten matchup. Wisconsin has dominated in recent weeks, but Northwestern has shown resilience at home. With Wisconsin favored by 7 points, Northwestern’s solid defensive unit could keep this game closer than expected, making the underdog a strong play.
Betting Odds and Recent Form
| Team | Record | ATS | Offense (PPG) | Defense (PPG) | OU Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 4-2 | 2-4 | 30.0 | 19.0 | 4-2 |
| Northwestern | 3-3 | 2-4 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 3-3 |
Key Stats to Support Northwestern +7
- Northwestern Defense: Northwestern’s run defense ranks 9th in the nation, allowing just 87.5 rushing yards per game. Wisconsin’s recent success has come on the ground, with RBs Tawee Walker and Cade Yacamelli putting up big numbers, but those came against weaker run defenses like Purdue and Rutgers. Northwestern’s stout front could slow down Wisconsin’s rushing attack.
- Wisconsin’s Struggles in the Passing Game: While QB Braedyn Locke had a strong game against Rutgers (240 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), Wisconsin’s passing attack ranks just 80th in the nation. Locke has thrown four interceptions this season, and Northwestern’s opportunistic defense could capitalize on his mistakes.
- Historical Matchup: Northwestern upset Wisconsin last season with a 24-10 win. Wisconsin has struggled in Evanston over the years, and Northwestern’s defense could once again keep the game close.
Northwestern’s Path to Covering +7
Northwestern’s defensive line has been one of the team’s strongest units, allowing just 2.9 yards per carry. If they can limit Wisconsin’s ground game and force them into passing situations, Wisconsin’s inconsistent aerial attack could lead to stalled drives.
Offensively, Northwestern averages just 19 points per game but has been more effective at home. With Wisconsin allowing 261.2 passing yards per game (114th in the nation), Northwestern’s passing game could find some opportunities, especially in short-yardage and third-down situations.
Power Stats Comparison
| Stat | Wisconsin (Rank) | Northwestern (Rank) |
|---|---|---|
| Yards Per Play (Offense) | 5.9 (64th) | 4.9 (115th) |
| Yards Per Play (Defense) | 5.2 (51st) | 5.2 (51st) |
| Rush Yards Per Game (Offense) | 193.2 (37th) | 114.0 (112th) |
| Rush Yards Per Game (Defense) | 87.5 (9th) | 87.5 (9th) |
| Points Per Game (Offense) | 30.0 (61st) | 19.0 (112th) |
| Points Per Game (Defense) | 19.0 (27th) | 19.0 (27th) |
Prediction
With Wisconsin’s reliance on the run game and Northwestern’s solid run defense, this game could come down to which team can win in the trenches. Northwestern’s defense has the potential to limit Wisconsin’s offensive success, and the Wildcats should be able to keep this game within a touchdown.
Take Northwestern +7