Washington State vs Oregon State Free ATS Picks
The Statsman breaks down Washington State’s road trip to Oregon State with a full look at efficiency metrics, pace factors, and key betting edges that point toward value on the Cougars.
Stat Summary Table
| Category | Washington State | Oregon State | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Play | 0.342 | 0.247 | WSU |
| Red Zone Efficiency | 100.0% | 65.2% | WSU |
| 3rd Down Conversion | 38.5% | 41.6% allowed | WSU (Slight) |
| Turnover Margin | +0.8 | -1.1 | WSU |
| Yards Per Play (Offense) | 5.0 | 4.8 | WSU |
| Yards Per Play (Defense) | 5.5 | 6.5 | WSU |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 26.7 | 35.6 | WSU |
| Plays Per Game | 66.4 | 71.8 | ORST Tempo |
| Red Zone Defense (Allowed) | 81.8% | 95.4% | WSU |
| Projected Score | 28 | 17 | WSU -3.5 (Value) |
College Efficiency Overview
Washington State enters this Pac-12 matchup with measurable advantages across nearly every efficiency category. The Cougars are generating 0.342 points per play, one of the better marks in the conference, while Oregon State produces just 0.247. Over the course of a typical 65–70-play game, that gap adds up fast.
The red zone efficiency difference is even more striking. WSU has converted every trip inside the 20 into points this season (100%), while Oregon State sits at just 65%, ranking near the bottom of the FBS. Those are the types of gaps that often decide games long before the fourth quarter. On third down, the Cougars convert nearly 39% of the time, a number that holds up well against Oregon State’s defense, which allows 42% conversions. Turnovers tell a similar story — the Beavers average 1.7 giveaways per game while forcing less than one takeaway, giving Washington State a major discipline and field-position edge.
Pace and Tempo Factors
This game features a tempo clash. Oregon State plays faster and throws more often — 56% of their offensive plays are passes, ranking 21st nationally. They average nearly 39 attempts per game, compared to WSU’s 32. The problem for the Beavers is that their efficiency doesn’t match their pace. They complete just 57% of passes, while Washington State’s offense connects on 65% with better situational execution.
Oregon State runs about six more plays per game than Washington State, but their inefficiency often leads to quick three-and-outs. On defense, the Beavers allow 6.5 yards per play — nearly a full yard worse than the Cougars’ 5.5. The faster pace could actually work against Oregon State, creating extra possessions for a more efficient Washington State offense that already converts drives at a higher rate.
Defensive Comparison
Defensively, Washington State has been the more consistent unit. The Cougars allow 26.7 points per game compared to Oregon State’s 35.6, and their yards-per-play defense (5.5) sits well ahead of Oregon State’s 6.5. The Beavers’ pass defense, ranked 114th nationally, has been a major issue, giving up 266 yards per game. WSU’s secondary has held opponents to just over 219 yards passing per contest and allows fewer explosive plays.
Red zone defense is another key separator. Oregon State allows opponents to score on 95% of trips inside the 20, one of the worst marks in college football. Washington State’s defense isn’t elite but remains serviceable at just under 82% allowed. When paired with a capable pass rush (6.7% sack rate), the Cougars’ defensive metrics line up perfectly against Oregon State’s weaknesses.
Possession and Efficiency Impact
Expect more possessions than usual in this matchup. Oregon State’s tempo could push both teams toward 15–16 drives, increasing the importance of per-possession scoring. That’s where Washington State’s advantage widens. Their 0.342 points per play rate and better red-zone efficiency translate to a higher expected output, even if both teams have similar total yardage. Oregon State’s -1.1 turnover margin and tendency for drive-killing mistakes create short fields that WSU can exploit.
More plays don’t necessarily mean more points for the home team — especially when those extra snaps often turn into giveaways or stalled drives. The math points to WSU benefiting from both efficiency and possession volume.
Trends and Historical Context
Washington State has dominated this series recently, winning nine of the last eleven meetings. The total has gone over in 10 of the last 12, although both defenses this season have made totals less predictable. Oregon State has gone over in all five home games this year, while WSU games have trended under in four of the last five. Against the spread, the Cougars are 4–1 in their last five, while the Beavers have failed to cover in six of eight.