TTU vs KSU Advanced College Efficiency Breakdown
The numbers on this Big 12 matchup tell a clear story — Texas Tech owns the efficiency edge on both sides of the ball. The Red Raiders rank 12th nationally in points per play (0.528), while Kansas State’s defense allows 0.329, creating a 0.199 differential that’s among the largest in-conference this season. TTU’s 40.3 PPG (#5) meets a Wildcats defense allowing 24.4 PPG (#57), and that gap should show up on the scoreboard.
Yards per play confirm the advantage: TTU averages 6.2 YPP (#26) to KSU’s 5.0 allowed (#32). The Red Raiders also own the third-down battle, converting 49.5% (#12) to KSU’s 37.3% (#84). Combined with an 87.9% red zone success rate and the Big 12’s fifth-ranked passing attack (293.3 YPG), the visitors bring a statistical profile that travels well — especially in Manhattan.
Pace & Tempo Metrics
Both teams operate near the national average in play volume — TTU runs 76.3 plays per game and KSU 74.0. The separation comes from efficiency per possession. TTU generates 3.5 red zone trips per game versus KSU’s 2.8, driven by cleaner drive sequencing and superior third-down execution.
Texas Tech throws on 48.3% of plays (#65), fitting naturally into KSU’s defensive split of 45.9% opponent pass rate. The Wildcats’ run-heavy approach (53% rushes) meets a TTU front that forces opponents into the ninth-lowest rush rate nationally (44.9%). Expect KSU to face more passing downs than they prefer — a problem against a defense allowing just 5.8 yards per attempt (#9).
Defensive Efficiency Breakdown
Texas Tech’s run defense has been elite all season — #1 nationally at 2.2 yards per rush allowed and 70.3 rushing yards per game. Kansas State’s ground game sits at 4.4 YPC (#57) and 143.1 YPG (#72), a steep mismatch that history says results in a defensive win 73% of the time. Through the air, TTU allows 5.8 YPA (#9) and a 56.9% completion rate (#16), both top-tier marks.
The sack rate matchup is where the data gets interesting — TTU generates pressure on 8.06% of dropbacks (#23) while KSU allows sacks on just 2.45% (#7). Whichever unit breaks that stalemate could swing multiple possessions. Turnovers are another key: KSU’s +1.3 takeaway edge per game is legit, but TTU’s 2.0 takeaways per game (#11) balance the field.
Possession & Efficiency Model
On a per-possession basis, TTU’s 0.528 points per play versus KSU’s 0.484 projects a 9% scoring efficiency gap — worth roughly 3.3 expected points over a standard 75-play game. Add in TTU’s 49.5% third-down conversion rate and consistent red zone pressure, and the Red Raiders project to sustain drives at a level KSU’s mid-tier offense can’t match.
KSU’s aggression on fourth down (53% conversions, #79) adds volatility, but TTU’s ability to win early downs minimizes those opportunities. This game sets up for Texas Tech to control flow through efficiency rather than tempo manipulation.
Historical & Trend Context
Kansas State has dominated this series historically — 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings and five straight outright wins. The total has gone OVER in 11 of the last 15, typically due to both teams’ offensive consistency. But context matters: this is a different Texas Tech team. The Red Raiders’ 7-1 ATS mark and elite defensive metrics separate them from prior matchups where they were outmuscled up front.
KSU is 2-3 ATS at home this season, while TTU has covered 2 of 3 on the road. The market still leans too heavily on history rather than current form.