Northern Illinois (4-3) heads to Scheumann Stadium to face Ball State (2-5) on October 26, 2024, at 3:30 PM ET. NIU is favored by -12.5 points as they aim to continue their push in the Mid-American standings. Ball State has struggled mightily this season, particularly on defense, making this a favorable matchup for Northern Illinois to cover the spread despite some offensive inconsistencies. Below are reasons why the Huskies should handle the Cardinals and cover the spread.
Game Details
- Teams: Northern Illinois Huskies vs Ball State Cardinals
- Week: Week 9
- Date: October 26, 2024
- Time: 3:30 PM ET
- Location: Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, Indiana
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Northern Illinois -12.5 (-110) | Ball State +12.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Northern Illinois -450 | Ball State +340
Total (Over/Under): 48.5 (O -110 | U -110)
Reasons Why Northern Illinois Should Cover the Spread
1. Ball State’s Struggling Defense
Ball State’s defense has been one of the worst in the nation, allowing 492.1 yards per game, ranked 131st. This includes giving up 310.9 passing yards (134th) and 42.9 points per game (131st), making them vulnerable to even average offenses. While Northern Illinois has been inconsistent offensively, this game presents a prime opportunity for the Huskies to exploit Ball State’s porous defense, especially on the ground where NIU averages 215 rushing yards per game.
2. Northern Illinois’ Strong Defense
While NIU’s offense has its limitations, their defense has been solid, giving up just 23.4 points per game (97th). More importantly, they excel at stopping the run, allowing only 133.4 rushing yards per game (48th), and will likely shut down Ball State’s ground game. With Ball State’s offense dependent on rushing, NIU’s defense should control the tempo and force Ball State into uncomfortable passing situations.
3. Northern Illinois’ Road Success and Ball State’s Home Struggles
Despite playing on the road, NIU has found ways to win and cover spreads in tough environments, going 2-1 ATS on the road this season. Ball State, meanwhile, has struggled at home, with a 1-4 record at Scheumann Stadium. The Cardinals’ inability to defend their home turf gives Northern Illinois an advantage as they look to cover a double-digit spread.
4. Ball State’s Poor Offensive Efficiency
Ball State’s offense has been underwhelming, averaging just 23.4 points per game, and they’ve struggled to consistently move the ball, particularly through the air. Their quarterback play has been erratic, and they are unlikely to exploit NIU’s strong defensive front. NIU has shown they can win low-scoring, defensive battles, and they should limit Ball State’s ability to score in this matchup.
5. Everyone Scores on Ball State
While NIU’s offense hasn’t been prolific, everyone has been able to score on Ball State’s defense this season. The Cardinals have allowed 30+ points in five of their seven games this season. NIU’s ground-and-pound style, combined with Ball State’s weak defense, should allow the Huskies to generate enough points to cover the -12.5 spread, even with a conservative offensive game plan.
Given Ball State’s defensive issues and Northern Illinois’ ability to control games with their defense, the Huskies are well-positioned to cover the double-digit spread in this conference matchup.
Pick: Take Northern Illinois -12.5