Location: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA
Date and Time: November 16, 2024, at 8:00 PM ET
Weather Forecast: [Windy and Mild with anticipated showers later in the day.]
Odds Block
| Team | Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | +7.0 (-105) | Over 52.5 (-110) | +240 |
| Iowa State | -7.0 (-115) | Under 52.5 (-110) | -300 |
Lead-In: Why the Under is the Play
With Cincinnati and Iowa State squaring off in a pivotal Big 12 matchup, the Under 52.5 presents itself as the sharp play. Both teams feature defenses capable of slowing opponents, and inconsistent offensive performances from Cincinnati further strengthen the case. Here’s why this game is unlikely to hit the Over.
1. Iowa State’s Stifling Defense
2. Cincinnati’s Offensive Struggles
Cincinnati’s offense has been inconsistent, especially on the road. Over their last five games, they’ve averaged just 22.6 PPG. Their inability to finish drives, combined with Iowa State’s solid defensive front, points to a difficult night for the Bearcats.
3. Red Zone Efficiency Favors the Under
Both teams struggle to convert red-zone opportunities into touchdowns. Iowa State scores touchdowns on only 56% of their red-zone trips, while Cincinnati is slightly worse at 53%. Expect field goals instead of touchdowns, keeping the total well below 52.5.
4. Weather Conditions in Ames
While the weather forecast is pending, November in Ames often brings cool, windy conditions. This could further limit big passing plays and place a greater emphasis on the run game, chewing up the clock and favoring the Under.
5. Historical Trends Support a Low-Scoring Game
Recent trends support the Under. Cincinnati’s games have gone Under in 3 of their last 5, and Iowa State’s stout defense has kept 4 of their last 5 games below the projected total. These trends align with expectations for Saturday’s matchup.
Gary G's Pick
This game has all the ingredients for a low-scoring affair: elite defense from Iowa State, an inconsistent Cincinnati offense, and potential weather conditions that could hamper big plays. With both teams relying on field goals more than touchdowns and the Under hitting frequently in their recent matchups, taking the Under 52.5 is the sharp move.
Gary G’s Pick: Under 52.5