Penn State (6-0 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. Wisconsin (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS)
Big Ten Football Week 9
Date/Time: Saturday, October 26th, 2024, 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI
TV: ABC
In a highly anticipated Big Ten matchup, the undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions head to Madison, WI, to take on the formidable Wisconsin Badgers. This game combines Penn State's unblemished record with Wisconsin’s impressive home-field advantage at Camp Randall Stadium, promising an intense Saturday night battle.
Betting Odds
- Point Spread: PSU -6.5 / WIS +6.5
- Moneyline: PSU -250 / WIS +200
- Total: 47.5
Game Preview
Wisconsin is coming in as a home underdog, a role they’ll relish under the Camp Randall lights. With Penn State’s recent record (6-0 SU, 2-4 ATS), the line of +6.5 looks to offer value on the Badgers' side. This game presents a few key angles that play to Wisconsin's favor, including their defensive prowess and the challenging environment that Camp Randall poses for any visiting team.
Home Field Advantage and Game Atmosphere
Camp Randall Stadium at night can be a game-changer, and the Badgers have been solid here this season with a 3-1 home record (2-1 ATS). With Penn State’s only two road games being against weaker competition, they may find themselves out of rhythm in the electric night atmosphere. The Badgers thrive at home, and Penn State's road history has not always been a sure thing when they’re up against physical defenses.
Defensive Edge to Wisconsin
Wisconsin brings a solid defense to this matchup, allowing just 5.0 yards per play and holding opponents to 155.9 passing yards per game, ranking 10th in pass defense. This statistic could pose a problem for Penn State’s QB Drew Allar, who has enjoyed high efficiency (70.9% completion) but has yet to face a top-tier defense like Wisconsin’s in a hostile setting. Expect the Badgers to force tighter windows and disrupt Allar’s rhythm, which has been key to Penn State’s success so far.
Trends and Betting Angles
Wisconsin comes in at 3-4 ATS, but they’ve shown their potential to cover spreads against strong opponents, particularly at home. Penn State, despite their winning record, is just 2-4 ATS, indicating that spreads may have leaned too heavily in their favor. Wisconsin’s defensive style and Penn State’s less-than-impressive ATS record suggest that this spread is ripe for a close game in Wisconsin’s favor.
Game Script and Key Stats
Weather could also come into play, with cooler temperatures expected—conditions favoring Wisconsin’s ground game. The Badgers’ 4.4 yards per carry could allow them to control the clock, limit Penn State’s possessions, and keep the game within reach. Wisconsin’s strong third-quarter scoring (9.8 points) further indicates they can keep up and adjust as the game progresses, making this a hard game for Penn State to pull away in.
Pick and Prediction
With the line set at +6.5, Wisconsin has the right mix of defensive strength, home-field advantage, and matchups to keep this close. Penn State may still pull off a win, but the Badgers should cover the spread. Pick: Take Wisconsin +6.5 in what promises to be a competitive Big Ten showdown.
