Game Details
Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs Oregon Ducks (12-0 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Big Ten Championship
Date/Time: December 7, 8:00 PM ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
TV: [Broadcast Info Pending]
Betting Odds
- Point Spread: Oregon -3 / Penn State +3
- Moneyline: Oregon -185 / Penn State +150
- Total: 50.5 (O/U)
Game Overview
This Big Ten Championship pits undefeated Oregon against a surging Penn State squad that comes in with an 11-1 record. Oregon's dominance this season has been undeniable, with a top-tier defense allowing just 16.2 PPG (9th nationally) and a high-powered offense averaging 33.3 PPG. However, Penn State boasts one of the most well-rounded squads in the country, with elite efficiency on both sides of the ball, ranking 3rd in completion percentage (71.7%) and 5th in QB rating.
Penn State enters off an impressive blowout win over Maryland (44-7), covering as big favorites. Their lone loss came against Ohio State, a game decided by just a touchdown. Oregon, meanwhile, has been perfect straight up, though they have an equal ATS record (6-6), indicating vulnerability relative to the lofty spreads they've faced.
Key Matchups & Analysis
1. Penn State Offense vs Oregon Defense
Penn State's passing attack, led by Drew Allar, averages 9.2 yards per attempt (6th nationally), which will challenge Oregon's stingy pass defense, ranked 8th in yards allowed (171.5 per game). If Penn State can establish their ground game (194.7 YPG, 26th), it will open opportunities for big plays downfield.
2. Oregon Offense Efficiency
Oregon's offense is explosive, averaging 6.8 yards per play (7th), but Penn State's defense counters with a strong showing of their own, holding opponents to 4.7 yards per play (12th). Oregon has leaned on their ability to sustain drives, but Penn State's elite completion percentage on offense may allow them to control the pace.
3. Red Zone Execution and Turnovers
Turnover margin could be a key differentiator. Penn State has been effective at limiting mistakes, averaging just 0.5 interceptions per game (26th), while Oregon's defense has struggled to generate picks (64th nationally). If Penn State can play clean, they can hang tough as underdogs.
4. Situational Trends
- Penn State ATS: 5-0 SU on the road and undefeated in neutral sites.
- Oregon ATS: While 12-0 SU, the Ducks are just 3-4 ATS in their last seven games.
Betting Pick and Rationale
I like Penn State to cover the +3 spread here and think they're live to pull off the outright upset. The Nittany Lions' defense is well-equipped to stymie Oregon's high-octane offense, and Drew Allar has been quietly improving with impressive efficiency. Oregon's defense, while strong, hasn't faced an opponent as balanced as Penn State this season.
Free Pick: Take Penn State +3
