Game Details
Notre Dame (13-1 SU, 12-2 ATS) vs. Penn State (13-2 SU, 8-7 ATS)
College Football Playoff Final
Date/Time: January 9, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
TV: ESPN
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Notre Dame -1.5 (-115) | Penn State +1.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Notre Dame -125 | Penn State +105
Over/Under Total: 47.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
Game Overview
This College Football Playoff Final pits two powerhouse programs against each other in a game loaded with intrigue. Notre Dame, led by a dominant 13-1 record and an impressive 12-2 ATS performance, enters as the slight favorite. Penn State comes in at 13-2 SU but has struggled ATS at 8-7. Both teams boast elite defenses and strong ground games, setting up a classic chess match.
Recent Performance:
Notre Dame has been scorching hot, riding a six-game winning streak and recently dismantling Georgia 23-10 in the semifinal. Quarterback R. Leonard’s efficient passing and Notre Dame’s explosive rushing attack have been key drivers.
Penn State also boasts momentum, winning its last two games convincingly, including a 31-14 victory over Boise State in the semifinal. However, the Nittany Lions have shown vulnerability, particularly in games where their defense bends early.
Key Matchups
Notre Dame Offense vs. Penn State Defense
Notre Dame’s balanced offense averages 406.6 yards per game, excelling with 217.5 rushing yards per contest (13th nationally). Running back dynamics and a solid offensive line pave the way, boasting a league-best 6.1 yards per carry. Penn State’s rush defense ranks 8th, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry. This clash in the trenches will likely dictate the game’s tempo.
Penn State Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
Penn State’s offense leans on a conservative passing attack, averaging 169.8 yards per game (6.6 yards per attempt). While efficient, they’ll face a Notre Dame secondary that excels in limiting big plays (6.3 yards per attempt allowed, 24th nationally).
Special Teams Edge
Notre Dame struggles with field-goal efficiency, converting just 54.2% of attempts (134th nationally). In a tightly contested matchup, this could spell trouble if the Irish fail to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
Trends to Watch
Notre Dame ATS: 12-2 this season, including a perfect 6-1 ATS at home/neutral sites.
Penn State ATS: 8-7 overall but 3-4 ATS in their last seven games.
Totals: Notre Dame is 7-7 O/U, while Penn State leans Under (6-9 O/U).
Betting Pick and Rationale
This matchup comes down to consistency and key battles in the trenches. Notre Dame’s rushing attack faces a formidable Penn State front, but their efficiency and explosive play potential give them the edge. While Penn State’s defense has been stellar, their offense’s lack of dynamism against elite defenses could be their downfall.
Pick: Notre Dame -1.5
Projected Score: Notre Dame 24, Penn State 17
Expect the Fighting Irish to control the clock, win critical third downs, and pull away late for a hard-fought victory.
